북한의 평화협정 주장에 관한 미⋅중의 전략적 입장과 한국의 대응 방향

Abstract

This paper discusses what proposals were suggested with regard to US-North Korean peace treaty under Kim Jong-un regime, analyzes what positions were taken strategically on that treaty by the US and China, and recommends what policy directions are desirable for South Korea. North Korea argues that the US should eliminate its hostile policy toward North Korea and conclude a peace treaty with North Korea. North Korea asserts that these demands are prerequisites for its own denuclearization. North Korea keeps the principle of "Peace Treaty First, Denuclearization Next." North Korea wants to actualize its denuclearization only after it can take advantage of the weakening of the ROK-US alliance through signing the US-North Korean peace treaty. Although the US does not ultimately refuse the peace treaty with North Korea, it argues that the peace treaty should be signed only after North Korean denuclearization. China suggests its arbitrary option that North Korean denuclearization and US-North Korean peace treaty should be negotiated simultaneously. China puts an emphasis on the initiation of dialogues between the US and North Korea, and estimates that its arbitration is in compliance with its strategic interests and contributes to peace on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea favors the peace regime on the Korean Peninsula which can substantially guarantee the peace in Korea because it concerns about the possibility that the US-North Korean peace treaty may become just a de jure treaty which substitutes the existing armistice treaty. South Korea also highlights the ROK-US cooperation which prevents South Korea from being excluded in the negotiation process of denuclearization as well as peace treaty. In addition, it is required for South Korea to advance its own self-reliant policy capability while overcoming the possibiity of being intrigued in the vortex of strategic conflicts between the US and China. Ultimately, while pursuing the goal of North Korean denuclearization, South Korea should emphasize the establishment of Korean peace treaty or peace regime, the strategic cooperation with the US and China, the enforcement of military capability based on self-reliant defense. Furthermore, it is necessary for South Korea to have the wisdom of active, self-reliant, and balanced diplomacy which can enlarge the advocate nations supporting the South Korean idea of permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.