평화협정의 유형에 따른 한반도 평화체제의 경로

Abstract

The respective positions of key Northeast Asian actors regarding the construction of a peace system on the Korean peninsula are as follows: South Korea and the United States advocate “denuclearization first, peace agreement second,” North Korea calls for “peace agreement first, denuclearization second,” and China proposes “parallel track” efforts. However, a close examination of the types and characteristics of peace agreements reveals that it is rare for a single formalized agreement to bring an end to conflict. Rather, conflicts are most often resolved through a complicated process involving a constellation of agreements. In view of the surrounding circumstances and conditions, peace agreements can be variously classified as preliminary base agreements, substantive basic agreements, and supplementary implementation agreements. The “denuclearization first, peace agreement second” pathway would involve deactivating all nuclear-related facilities in North Korea through a preliminary base agreement. A substantive basic agreement would then confirm this deactivation and reach a comprehensive peninsula-wide peace agreement. Finally, the parties would use a supplementary implementation agreement to establish the implementation and verification procedures for North Korean denuclearization, as well as to reach agreement on the various follow-on efforts needed to consolidate peace on the peninsula. As for “peace agreement first, denuclearization second,” a preliminary base agreement would involve political and military trust-building and normalization between North Korea and the United States, as well as the confirmation of Pyongyang’s resolve to denuclearize. The substantive basic agreement would then establish the procedures needed for denuclearization and the signing of a peach treaty, and the supplementary implementation agreement would be used to reach consensus on the specific tasks required for denuclearization. Finally, the “parallel track” pathway would first require a preliminary base agreement affirming the parties’ determination to simultaneously pursue denuclearization and peace agreement, and which would perhaps involve a trade-off between a freeze on North Korean nuclear installations and a moratorium on ROK-US military exercises. A substantive basic agreement would then formalize the agreement to implement North Korean denuclearization and a peninsular peace agreement, the specific requirements of which would be verified and amended through a supplementary implementation agreement.