노후 소득보장 시스템 개혁의 효과성 국제비교
Effects of the Reform of Post-retirement Income Protection System
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본 논문의 목적은 인구구조의 고령화에 대응하기 위한 노후 소득보장 시스템의 개혁을 위해 OECD 및 EU 각 국의 정책적 노력을 정리하고, 정책수단별로 보장성, 형평성, 재정안정성 측면에서 그 효과성을 분석하여 한국의 향후 연금제도 개선에 필요한 정책적 근거기반을 구축하는데 있다. 본 논문은 주로 1990년대 이후의 OECD 및 EU 국가의 노후 소득보장 시스템에 초점을 두고 선행연구와 국제기구의 보고자료를 기초로 분석하였다. 연금개혁을 위한 주요 정책수단별 효과성 분석은 OECD 및 EU 국가의 횡단면 국가간 data를 이용하여 선형회귀분석(linear regression) 방법으로 시도하였다. 1990년대 이후 노후 소득보장 시스템은 대부분의 국가에서 변화되고 있고, 그 변화는 점진적이지만 장기적으로는 강력하게 이루어지고 있다. 연금 시스템이나 재정방식과 같은 구조적 제도 개혁과 연금 시스템 내부의 모수적인 개혁도 함께 이루어지고 있다. 대부분의 국가들에서 정책수단은 다중적으로 선택된다. 그러나 모수적인 개혁이라고 하여 정책효과가 반드시 미약한 것이 아니며, 구조적 개혁을 단행한다고 하여 정책효과가 큰 것은 아님을 인식하는 것이 중요하다. 연금개혁은 형평성과 재정안정성을 강화하는 방향으로 진행되었으나, 개혁과정에서 발생할 수 있는 보장성 문제를 보완하기 위한 조치도 병행되었다. 또한 연금 적용율과 소득대체율은 보장성에 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 재정방식 측면에서 보면 부과방식 중심으로 운영되던 국가들이 적립적 요소를 강화하는 방향으로 개혁을 진행하고 있다. 그리고 모수적인 개혁 역시 재정안정화의 중요한 수단이다. 연금급여율의 직접적인 하향조정과 함께 연금급여 산정방식의 조정, 연금수급개시연령의 조정, 물가지수연동방식으로의 전환 등 다양한 형태의 모수적인 개혁은 정책수단으로서 조합적으로 선택되고 있다. 기대수명의 연장에 대응하기 위한 연금수급개시연령의 상향조정 정책 또한 안정화 효과가 분명하게 나타나고 있다. 재정안정화를 위해서 이처럼 다양한 정책수단이 동원되어야 하겠지만, 저출산에 의한 인구구조의 악화를 완화시킬 수 있는 정책도 필요하다.
Abstract
This paper is aimed at looking into reform steps OECD and EU countries have taken in response to the need for raising the coverage, equity, and financial stability of their post-retirement income protection systems, and providing policy suggestions for the improvement of Korea’s pension schemes. Making reference to a large body of previous literature and reports, this paper takes up an analysis of policy changes since the 1990s in post-retirement income protection systems in a number of OECD and EU countries. The effect of individual policy changes of note made to pension systems of these countries are analyzed using cross-sectional data sets in linear regression models. Many countries around the world have made changes to their post-retirement income protection systems, and since the 1990s, in particular, such changes have been, if gradual, strong in their impact in the long-term. Pension reforms under review are both paradigmatic and parametric. For most countries in reform of their pension systems chose a combination of both paradigmatic parametric changes. It is important, however, to notice that the effect of parametric changes is not necessarily insignificant and the effect of paradigmatic changes is not always significant. When pension reforms take place, they take place with a view to raising equity and financial stability, but not unaccompanied by additional measures to address the problem of coverage. The participation rate and replacement level of a pension scheme are found to have significant effect on coverage. As to the financing of pension, many countries have taken reforms steps away from the previous pay-as-you-go basis to strengthening the funded component over time. Parametric reforms are an important policy instrument to increase financial stability. Many of the countries under examination are found to have taken parametric reform steps in the form of a combination of a direct downward adjustment of income replacement level, changes in benefit formula and the pensionable age, and shift to price-indexation. The effect of the upward adjustment of the pensionable age as a response to ever-increasing life expectancy is considered significant. A variety of policy measures will have to be taken to increase the financial stability of Korea’s post-retirement income protection system, and to this additional measures must be taken to reduce the adverse impact of demographic aging.
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