북한의 국지도발 양상 변화요인에 대한 연구 - 억제이론을 중심으로 -
A Study on change of North Korea's Aspects of Local Provocation - Focused on Deterrence Theory -
0
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
For the past 60 years or so, South Korea seems to have successfully detered North Korea's attempt of full scale war. It is probably because of Korea-U. S. combined force through the two countries' alliance as well as South Korea's constant military buildup based on the economic development. However, in the aspect of local provocation, it is hard to say that North Korea has been effectively detered. It is because North Korea's local provocation has been sustained so far. This fact raises a question whether South Korea's effort has been made properly enough to deter North Korea's local provocation. Recently, there is an interesting fact found in North Korea's aspects of local provocation. While North Korea's local provocation was mainly provoked on land in the past, its main local provocations have been provoked mainly at sea, especially around the Five Islands of the Western Sea since 1990. Such a phenomenon makes it possible to suppose that South Korea's effort to deter local provocations has been effectively made both on land and in the air, but not at sea. Accordingly, this study classified North Korea's local provocations into land, air and sea by time period and verified that North Korea's aspects of local provocation have changed from land to sea, further analyzing the causes by three attainment conditions of deterrence, such as capability, communication and credibility. As a result, conditions have been attained good enough to deter North Korea's local provocation both on land and in the air, but this study found out that it has been insufficient at sea yet. Therefore, by building an capability to punish the enemy's provocation through an increase of military force at sea, especially the Five Islands of the Western Sea and delivering South Korea's will to use military force against North Korea's additional provocation without any hesitation, South Korea should be aware that securing credibility is the only means to deter North Korea's future provocation.
Abstract
For the past 60 years or so, South Korea seems to have successfully detered North Korea's attempt of full scale war. It is probably because of Korea-U. S. combined force through the two countries' alliance as well as South Korea's constant military buildup based on the economic development. However, in the aspect of local provocation, it is hard to say that North Korea has been effectively detered. It is because North Korea's local provocation has been sustained so far. This fact raises a question whether South Korea's effort has been made properly enough to deter North Korea's local provocation. Recently, there is an interesting fact found in North Korea's aspects of local provocation. While North Korea's local provocation was mainly provoked on land in the past, its main local provocations have been provoked mainly at sea, especially around the Five Islands of the Western Sea since 1990. Such a phenomenon makes it possible to suppose that South Korea's effort to deter local provocations has been effectively made both on land and in the air, but not at sea. Accordingly, this study classified North Korea's local provocations into land, air and sea by time period and verified that North Korea's aspects of local provocation have changed from land to sea, further analyzing the causes by three attainment conditions of deterrence, such as capability, communication and credibility. As a result, conditions have been attained good enough to deter North Korea's local provocation both on land and in the air, but this study found out that it has been insufficient at sea yet. Therefore, by building an capability to punish the enemy's provocation through an increase of military force at sea, especially the Five Islands of the Western Sea and delivering South Korea's will to use military force against North Korea's additional provocation without any hesitation, South Korea should be aware that securing credibility is the only means to deter North Korea's future provocation.
참고문헌 (32)
- 공군본부, "공군사 제6집 (1973-1977)" (1985), 공군교재창
- 공군작전사령부, "작사 25년사(1961-1986)" (1987), 공군교재창
- 국방군사연구소, "건군50년사" (1998), 국방군사연구소
- 국방군사연구소, "대비정규전사Ⅱ" (1998), 국방군사연구소
- 국방부, "천안함피격사건백서" (2010), 국방부
- 김인태, "북한의 대남도발 사례 분석 및 전망", 군사논단, (63) (2010)
- 박춘삼, "북한 군사비 규모 판단", 국방논집, (15) (1991)
- 배양일, "한국 안보전략의 변화와 한국 공군 60년, In 한국 공군창군 60년과 새로운 60년을 향한 항공우주력 발전방향" (2010), 오름
- 스즈키 마사유키, "김정일과 수령제 사회주의", 서울중앙일보사, ~ (1994)
- 아시아 경제, "성인 80%…북한 무력도발 시 ‘군사적 대응’해야", ~ (2012)
- 유동열, "북한은 남한 혁명역량 강화.......전개할 것이다", 북한 (2003)
- 한반도의 핵억제와 제반분쟁, "유재갑", 국방대학교, ~ (1994)
- 윤태영, "한․미 동맹체제하에서 한국의 대북한 위기관리, 1968-1983", 한국정치학논집, 33(2) (1999)
- 정경영, "연평도 사태 평가와 북한 도발 시나리오 그리고 한국의 안보태세", 군사논단, (66) (2011)
- 정삼만, "북한의 재래식 전력과 천안함 사태의 교훈, In 한국의 안보와 한미해군의 역할" (2011), 한국해양전략연구소
- 조선일보, "北,南 사격훈련 땐 2차 3차 타격, NLL 기싸움 일촉즉발", ~ (2010)
- 조한길, "북한 해군의 전략에 관한 연구" (1998), 해군대학
- 합동참모본부, "국지도발대비작전" (1998), 합동참모본부
- 황병무, "전쟁과평화의이해" (2001), 오름
- Art, Robert J, "Technology, Strategy and the Use of Force, In The Use of Force" (1971), Little Brown
- Blainey, Geoffrey, "The Causes of War" (1988), The Free Press
- Scenes from an Unfinished War: Low-Intensive Conflict in Korea, 1966-1969, "Daniel P. Bolger", Combat Studies Institute, ~, pp.Leaveworth Paper. No 19 (1991)
- George, Alexander L., "Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice" (1974), Columbia University Press
- Harkabi, Y, "Nuclear War and Nuclear Peace" (1996), Israel Program for Scientific Translation
- Howard, Michael, "Reassurance and Deterrence: Western Defense in the 1980s", Foreign Affairs, 61 (1982)
- Kahn, Herman, "On Thermonuclear War" (1960), Princeton University Press
- Levy, Jack S, "Misperception and the Cause of War: Theoretical Linkages and Anlytical Problems", World Politics, 36(1) (1983)
- Mesquita, Bruce Bueno de, "The Contribution of Expected Utility Theory to the Study off International Conflict, In The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars" (1989), Cambridge University Press
- Morgan, Patrick M, "Deterrence : A Conceptual Analysis" (1977), Sage Publication
- Snyder, Glen H, "Deterrence and Defence" (1961), Princeton University press
- Wiliams, Phil, "Deterrence, In Contemporary Strategy: Theories and Politics" (1975), Home and Meier
- Wohlstetter, Albert, "The Delicate Balance of Terror", Foreign Affairs (1959)