전망이론과 민군관계: 무력사용을 중심으로
Prospect Theory and Civil-Military Relations with an Emphasis on the Issue with regard to the Use of Force
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초록
8.18 도끼만행은 1953년 정전협정이 체결된 이래 최초로 북한군에 의해 미군이 DMZ에서 살해된 사건이다. 이 사건은 미루나무 절단으로 종결되었지만, 미국은 지금도 이란, 이라크, 소말리아 등에서 미군 사망에 대해서는 신속하고 단호한 보복공격으로 대응하고 있다. 민군관계의 관점에서 보면 도끼만행 사건을 수습하는 과정에서, 키신저 장관은 최고위직 외교관으로서 문민집단, 그리고 스틸웰 사령관은 현역 대장으로서 군부집단의 대표역할을 수행했다. 전통적 사고에 의하면, 대체로 문민집단 엘리트는 군부의 호전적(trigger-happy) 성향을 제어하는 완충역할을 수행할 것으로 기대된다. 대표적 사례로 보·오전쟁(普·奧戰爭)에서 승리한 직후에 프로이센의 수상 비스마르크는 오스트리아 수도(빈)에서 시가행진을 벌이자는 육군총장 몰트케의 주장을 자제시켰다. 키신저-스틸웰 관계에서는 비스마르크-몰트케 관계와 정반대 상황이 벌어졌다. 키신저는 북한에 대한 적개심과 보복의지를 드러낸 반면, 전역이 임박한 스틸웰은 처음부터 북한에 대한 ‘보복’은 언급하지 않고, 대체로 미루나무의 ‘절단’ 같은 ‘사고수습’에만 집중했다. 결국 외교수장이자 문민집단의 대표격이던 키신저는 ‘군사 지휘관’ 같은 모습을 보인 반면, 현역군인이자 군부집단의 대표격이던 스틸웰은 ‘외교관’ 같은 모습을 보였다. 전망이론(Prospect Theory)은 키신저-스틸웰 간 벌어진 역할반전의 퍼즐에 대한 단서를 제공해 준다. 이 논문의 목적은 전망이론을 적용하여, 판문점 도끼만행 사건에 대한 사례연구를 통해, 무력사용을 둘러싼 민-군 간의 잠재적 갈등상황 및 관련문제를 민군관계의 관점에서 조명해 보는 것이다. 이를 위해 서론에 이어, 제2장 ‘전망이론과 민군관계’에서는 국제관계에 유용한 전망이론의 기본개념 정리하고, 제3장은 1976년의 판문점 도끼만행 사건에 대한 사례연구를 시도하며, 제4장에서는 민군관계에 대한 함의와 함께 전망이론의 기여와 한계 및 문제점을 짚어볼 것이다.
Abstract
The heinous Axe Murder crime on August 18 in 1976 at JSA (Joint Security Area) within DMZ (demilitarized zone) was the first murder committed by North Korea since the signing of Armistice Agreement in 1953. Whereas this incident was finalized by merely cutting the poplar tree, the U.S. is responding to the murder of its soldiers in Iran, Iraq, Somalia and elsewhere by swift and resolute retaliatory measures. From the perspective of the Civil-Military Relations (CMR), in the course of resolving the Axe Murder case, it appears that Henry Kissinger, then Secretary of State as well as the top diplomat, represented the civilian group in the absence of President Ford, while Richard G. Stilwell, the Commander of CINCUNC-CFC-USFK and active military officer, represented the military establishment during the time of Chief of Joint Chiefs of Staff’s absence. According to the conventional wisdom, within the context of CMR, the civilian elites are expected to play a role of suppressing the trigger-happy tendencies displayed by the military officers. Case in point would be the showdown between Prussia’s Otto von Bismarck and Helmut von Moltke. ‘Iron Chancellor’ Bismark tried his utmost in order to tamp down the zeal of the Prussian Army’s Chief of Staff, who demanded a victorious military parade through the downtown of Vienna right after the stunning victory at the Austro-Prussian War. The relation between Kissinger and Stilwell was totally opposite to that of Bismark-Moltke case. While Kissinger revealed that he was willing to take risks for retaliatory measures against North Koreans by showing hostilities toward them, Stilwell who was at the virtual end of more than four-decade of military career took pains to focus on myopic goal of cutting ‘the damn tree’ and on other damage control measures. Therefore, in one sense, whereas Kissinger played the role of military commander, Stilwell played the role of career diplomat. Prospect Theory provides us with an insightful clue as to the dramatic role-reversal between them. The purpose of this study is, by applying Prospect Theory, to enhance the understanding and explanatory power by means of examining the potential conflictual relations between the civil-military elites and other related issues revolving around ‘the use of force’ issue with the focus on the case study of Panmunjom Axe Murder Incident. Followed by the Introduction, the Chapter 2 will examine relevant basic concepts of Prospect Theory and explore mutually reinforcing relations between Prospect Theory and CMR. The Chapter 3 will take up the work of case study regarding the Axe Murder Incident in 1976. And finally the Chapter 4 will summarize main findings of the study and delve into the Prospect Theory’s limitations and other theoretical issues to be further refined.
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