기대효용이론을 통한 軍 조직 내 지휘관의 축소보고 분석
Analysis of Downsized Reporting among Commanders within Military Organizations using Expected Utility Theory
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초록
본 연구는 지휘관의 축소보고에 영향을 주는 요인들을 비교정태분석으로 분석한 것이다. 비교정태분석은 균형상태에서 외부여건의 변화로 인해 새로운 균형으로 이동하는 과정을 비교하는 분석인데 적발확률, 처벌강도, 부정평가 비율이라는 세 가지 요인을 변화시켜보면서 지휘관의 축소보고 수준이 어떻게 달라지는지 살펴보았다. 이를 통해 적발확률과 처벌강도는 축소보고 수준과 반비례하나, 부정평가 비율과 축소보고 수준은 부정평가 비율이 낮은수준에서 일정수준 증가시 축소보고 수준은 증가하나 특정구간 이후에 부정평가 비율의 증가는 축소보고 수준을 감소하게 한다. 또한 적발확률, 처벌강도, 부정평가 비율은 서로 교환관계를 갖으며, 적절한 조합을 통해 축소보고를 줄이고 정상보고를 유도할 수 있다는 것을 제시하였다. 축소보고를 방지하기 위한 정책적 제언으로는 문제해결 문화의 구축, 오픈 커뮤니케이션의 활성화, 적절한 보상과 처벌의 시스템 구축을 제안한다.
Abstract
This study utilized comparative statics analysis to investigate the factors influencing commanders' downsized reporting. Comparative statics analysis involves exploring the process of shifting from one equilibrium to another due to changes in external conditions. By manipulating three factors—detection probability, penalty intensity, and biased evaluation ratio—the study investigated how commanders' levels of downsized reporting change. The results indicated an inverse relationship between detection probability and penalty intensity with downsized reporting levels, while the negative evaluation rate and the level of downsizing reporting increase at a certain level from a low negative evaluation rate. However, beyond a specific range, the increase in the negative evaluation rate leads to a decrease in the level of downsized reporting. Furthermore, detection probability, penalty intensity, and biased evaluation ratio were found to have an exchange relationship, suggesting that an appropriate combination of these factors could reduce downsized reporting and encourage accurate reporting. In terms of policy recommendations to prevent downsized reporting, the study proposes the establishment of a problem-solving culture, activation of open communication, and the implementation of an effective system for rewarding and penalizing. This research enhances understanding of downsized reporting within organizations through modeling and simulations, thereby facilitating the improvement of problem-solving and reporting systems within organizations. Additionally, by deeply understanding the impact of changes in external conditions on downsized reporting within organizations through comparative statics analysis, the study offers a novel approach that combines academic theory with practical policy recommendations.
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