Japan and the Identity Politics of East Asian Maritime Disputes
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Given the essentially divisive and zero-sum nature of territorial issue, revisionist countries are often tempted to achieve their goals by the use of force rather than by peaceful negotiations. Fueled by identity politics, the aversion of some disputant countries to negotiated settlements is truly worrisome in East Asia. At the regional/structural level, the rise of China poses substantial challenges to U.S. hegemony. China is too big and too proud to comply without reservations with the Western-shaped norms and rules. As to Japan, it is certainly an important agent in the emerging regional order and yet its influence is mixed: On the one hand, it serves as a linchpin of a rules-based co-evolution of regional order; on the other hand, the resurgence of its maritime identity is making the already daunting task of stabilizing the new regional balance of power much more difficult. The combination of Trump and Abe risks may prove to be particularly troublesome. With U.S. President Donald Trump’s rise as an unpredictable security partner and China’s rise as an unforeseen security challenge, the resurgence of Japan as a sea power under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s leadership causes big uncertainties to a region already in trouble.
Abstract
Given the essentially divisive and zero-sum nature of territorial issue, revisionist countries are often tempted to achieve their goals by the use of force rather than by peaceful negotiations. Fueled by identity politics, the aversion of some disputant countries to negotiated settlements is truly worrisome in East Asia. At the regional/structural level, the rise of China poses substantial challenges to U.S. hegemony. China is too big and too proud to comply without reservations with the Western-shaped norms and rules. As to Japan, it is certainly an important agent in the emerging regional order and yet its influence is mixed: On the one hand, it serves as a linchpin of a rules-based co-evolution of regional order; on the other hand, the resurgence of its maritime identity is making the already daunting task of stabilizing the new regional balance of power much more difficult. The combination of Trump and Abe risks may prove to be particularly troublesome. With U.S. President Donald Trump’s rise as an unpredictable security partner and China’s rise as an unforeseen security challenge, the resurgence of Japan as a sea power under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s leadership causes big uncertainties to a region already in trouble.
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