Northeast Asia Order after WWII: Continuity, Compliance, Power-Transition and Challenges
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East Asia is now fully engaged in a competition between a rising China and the otherpowers—the United States and Japan—while the regional order is in a transitionfrom a super primacy of the United States to the asymmetric bipolar structure ofthe United States and China. China is changing a lot in terms of capabilities andbehavior; but China also shows its benevolence, such as benefit-sharing initiativeson regional institutionalization development. The “American rebalancing strategy”has partly reversed the overall situation in East Asia in favor of the United States,but as 57 countries have joined the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB),Beijing has now recovered some ground from this overwhelming tide of the U.S. strategy. China’s military modernization and Sino-Japanese confrontation overthe Diaoyu Islands offer a big excuse and incentive for Japan’s acceleration ofthis process of becoming a normal country. The future of Northeast Asia liesmainly in the four variables and their interactions: the Chinese CommunistParty’s capability to balance its goal of national rejuvenation and nationalisticemotion in protecting its sovereignty interests; the United States’ genuine attitudetoward China’s power development; Japan’s goal of its nationalistic resurgenceand its complicated strategic ties with China and South Korea; and North Koreanregime stability and nuclear capability development. In spite of the Sino-Americancompetition relations, there always exists a demand of condominium and strategicinterdependence on global governance and other hot issues in the internationalarena. Therefore, management of China-U.S. competition is key to stability of theregional order.
Abstract
East Asia is now fully engaged in a competition between a rising China and the otherpowers—the United States and Japan—while the regional order is in a transitionfrom a super primacy of the United States to the asymmetric bipolar structure ofthe United States and China. China is changing a lot in terms of capabilities andbehavior; but China also shows its benevolence, such as benefit-sharing initiativeson regional institutionalization development. The “American rebalancing strategy”has partly reversed the overall situation in East Asia in favor of the United States,but as 57 countries have joined the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB),Beijing has now recovered some ground from this overwhelming tide of the U.S. strategy. China’s military modernization and Sino-Japanese confrontation overthe Diaoyu Islands offer a big excuse and incentive for Japan’s acceleration ofthis process of becoming a normal country. The future of Northeast Asia liesmainly in the four variables and their interactions: the Chinese CommunistParty’s capability to balance its goal of national rejuvenation and nationalisticemotion in protecting its sovereignty interests; the United States’ genuine attitudetoward China’s power development; Japan’s goal of its nationalistic resurgenceand its complicated strategic ties with China and South Korea; and North Koreanregime stability and nuclear capability development. In spite of the Sino-Americancompetition relations, there always exists a demand of condominium and strategicinterdependence on global governance and other hot issues in the internationalarena. Therefore, management of China-U.S. competition is key to stability of theregional order.
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