북한 군사비의 적정 및 과다지출 규모 추정

Abstract

This paper is to estimate the excess amount of North Korea’s military expenditure. first of all, a proper model was established for an military expenditure function to calculate the rational amounts of every countries in the world. The model will offer the optimum level of each country's military expenditure through multi-liner regression analysis. This estimation model starts from setting up a hypothesis that the military expenditure may be decided by three independent variables of GDP, population and territory. Accordingly, the model can produce military expenditure functions by largely two methods：one thing is to produce one function based on 138 countries in the world, the other thing is to product 5 respective functions based on country groups classified by GDP per capita. These functions can be offered to estimate the optimum or excess amount of the military expenditure that every country including North Korea is faced with. On base of the official data announced by North Korea itself, as of 2006, North Korea’s excess military expenditure is estimated at 1,450-1,690 million dollars, which comes to 3.4-7.3 times compared with its optimum level. And on the base of real data including North Korea’s concealed other military expenditure, that size tremendously reach 6,000-6,240 million dollars 12.8-27.1 times beyond its optimum level. North Korea has been burdening the most enormous military cost since 1950's. Recently North Korea also has been bearing the huge military expenditure according to its military priority policy in spite of its economic difficulty. For that reason, North Korea should be making sacrifices for the growth and development of its economy. And North Korean economy will be getting darker and darker in process of time, so far as it continues to go beyond optimum level of its military expenditure.