신국제질서의 태동에 대한 미국의 인식과 전략
The U.S. Perception and Strategies on the comming New World Order due to China’s Rise
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중국의 부상에 따라 형성될 신국제질서의 성격을 바라보는 미국 재야의 평가와 미국 정부의 공식 입장은 다소 차이가 난다. 미국 정부는 미·중관계가 협력과 갈등의 양 요소가 모두 내포됐다고 평가하면서 중국의 태도 변화를 요구하는 전략적 입장을 취하고 있다. 미국의 대중국 전략은 외교 및 경제 분야에서 관여를 통해 중국과 건설적인 관계를 유지하면서도 국방분야에서는 균형을 취해 중국의 부상이 위협과 불안정 요인이 될 경우에 대비하는 것이다. 그런 점에서 미국의 대외전략은 양면성을 띤 위험대비 전략이라고 규정할 수 있을 것이다. 이와 같은 미국의 위험대비 전략이 자국의 패권에 대한 중국의 도전을 용납하지 않는 것이라고 한다면, 이는 중국의 대외전략과 크게 충돌하지 않을 가능성이 높다. 중국의 전략목표는 미국 주도의 세계질서를 부정하기보다 그 속에서 단계적으로 영향력을 확대해 나가는 것이기 때문이다. 따라서 우리의 대응전략은 중단기적으로 한미동맹에 기초하여 중국과 건설적 관계를 맺으면서도 장기적으로 중국의 지역패권국화에 대비하는 것이어야 할 것이다.
Abstract
The U.S. government’s official position is somewhat different from the views of academic circles and journalists on the characteristics of the new world order due to China’s rise. The U.S. government assesses the U.S.-China relationship to have two-pronged factors of cooperation and conflicts, and keeps the strategic position to hope a China’s moderate attitudes. The U.S. strategy toward China is one thing that maintains a productive relationship with China, another thing is preparing against Chinese expansionism. Such a two-pronged U.S. strategy can define as a hedge strategy. Though it does not mean to allow Chinese challenge to the U.S. global hegemony, it can avoid conflicts with China’s foreign strategy. It’s because the object of China’s foreign strategy is not to deny the U.S. hegemony but to enlarge her influences on the U.S. hegemony step by step at the view of long term. Korea should maintain a close relationship with China; however, Korea should also have in place strong alliance with the U.S. stand with China’s rise against threatening and destabilizing.
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