21세기 일본의 대중국 견제정책의 원인
The Cause of Japan’s China Balancing Policy in the 21st Century
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중국의 부상은 20세기 국제정치에서 가장 큰 사건이었지만, 21세기 중국의 해군력 강화는 역내 정세를 급격히 변화시키고 있다. 특히 바다라는 천연 장애물을 기반으로 안보보다는 경제성장을 추구한 일본에게 있어서, 중국의 해군력은 일본의 안보문제를 초래하기 때문에, 일본도 최근 군비증강과 동맹 확대를 통해서 중국을 견제하려고 하고 있다. 기존 위협균형이론이나, 안보 딜레마는 양 국가 간의 군비경쟁 혹은 불안정한 관계를 설명할 수는 있어도 현 상황의 원인을 적절하게 설명하는 데한계를 갖는다. 따라서 강대국들이 추구하고자 하는 최우선 국가이익을 추상적으로 표현한 대전략을 통해서, 상호 간의 관계를 알아보고자 한다. 특히 다른 지역 국가들보다 동일 지역에서 동일한 대전략을 추구하는 국가들의 관계가 불안정하다는 것을 추론하였다. 패전 이후 일본의 대전략인 요시다 독트린은 대전략에서 중요한 안보문제를 미국에게 담당하게 하고, 자신은 경제성장에 집중하는 특징을 갖는데, 탈냉전 이후 중국에서도 같은 행태를 볼 수 있다. 게다가 일본은 ‘잃어버린 십 년’ 동안 시간을 지체하다 이제야 아베독트린(해양세력)을 추구하고 있는데, 같은 시기 중국도 강대국화를 위해서 해양 전략을 추구하고 있다. 따라서 중국과 일본의 관계는 동일한 지역(아시아)에서 동일한 대전략(해양 전략)을 추구하고 있으므로, 양 국가 간 관계는 불안정할 뿐만 아니라, 더욱 악화될 것이라고 논리적으로 추정하였다.
Abstract
The rise of China was the greatest event in 20th century international politics, but the strengthening of naval power in the 21st century has dramatically changed the situation in the region. Especially for Japan, which pursues economic growth rather than security based on the natural obstacles of the sea, China’s naval forces cause Japan’s security problems, and Japan is also trying to balancing China through military expansion and alliance expansion. The existing balance of threat theory or the security dilemma can explain the arms race or unstable relationship between the two countries, but it has limitations to adequately explain the cause of the present situation. Therefore, I sought to understand the mutual relations through the grand strategy that expresses abstractly the national interests that the great powers intend to pursue. In particular, that the relationship between countries seeking the same strategy in the same region is more unstable than in other regions. After the defeat of Pacific War, Japan’s third Grand Strategy, the Yoshida Doctrine, characterized putting the issue of security and economy (Gun vs Butter) in charge of security to the United States and herself focus on economic growth. In addition, Japan is waste her times by the ‘lost decade’. Now it is pursuing the Abe Doctrine (seapower strategy). At the same time, China is pursuing its maritime strategy for the great power. Therefore, since the relationship between China and Japan is pursuing the same strategy (seapower strategy) in the same region (Asia), the relationship between the two countries is logically estimated to be not only unstable but also worse.
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