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국제금융기구의 ‘이행조건’ 분석과 북한 개발협력 시사점

International Financial Institution ’ s Aid Conditionality and Implications for Development Cooperation with North Korea

문경연|최창용
국가안보전략연구원 (Institute for National Security Strategy)|2021.06|국가안보와 전략 (National Security and Strategy)|제21권 제2호|pp. 31-75|DOI 10.23111/nsas.2021.21.2.002

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북한North Korea국제통화기금개발효과성Development EffectivenessWorld Bank세계은행국제금융기구이행조건International Finance Institutions(IFIs)International Monetary FundConditionality
주제분류정치외교학

초록

북한은 김정은 체제 등장 이후에도 ‘비핵화’ 문제로 주변국과의 군사안보적 긴장 관계를 유지하고 있으나, 한국을 포함한 국제사회는 북한의 사회경제적, 정치적 변화에 대한 다양한 시나리오를 준비할 필요가 있다. 이러한 맥락에서 본 연구는 북한에 대한 국제사회의 개발협력이 본격화되기전 주요 의제로 등장할 가능성이 높은 국제금융기구의 ‘이행조건’을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 ‘이행조건’의 정의, 변천 과정, 관련된 주요 쟁점과 정책적논의를 고찰하고, 특히 ‘이행조건’에 대한 비판을 극복하기 위해 최근 국제금융기구들이 강조하고 있는 수원국의 주인의식, 이행조건의 최소화, 국별특성에 부합하는 거버넌스개혁과 기술지원, 국제금융기구 간 협업과 조정, 공여국과 수원국 간 파트너십, 이행조건 수행에 대한 사전⋅사후 명확한합의 등 이행조건 관련 원칙들의 핵심 내용을 정리했다. 또한, 신규 회원국, 체제전환국, 저소득 스트레스 국가(LICUS)에 적용되었던 이행조건들을 사례로 하여, 이행조건의 실제 적용 실태와 문제점, 유형별 특징을 분석함으로써 북한에 대한 시사점을 도출하였다.

Abstract

North Korea has maintained military and security tensions with neighboring countries over the issue of ‘denuclearization’ even after the Kim Jongun regime emerged. However, the international community, including South Korea, needs to consider various scenarios for socioeconomic and political changes in North Korea. In this context, the study sought to analyze the ‘aid conditionality’, which is prerequisite for financial aid to North Korea by international financial institutions(IFIs). To this end, examined were the definition of ‘aid conditionality’, the process of application, related policy discussions and major issues. The present study also analyzed key principles of conditionality proposed by the IFIs such as national ownership, collaborations and coordination among the IFIs, clarification of the conditionality and so on. On top of that, the study investigated the contents of major implementation conditionality such as partnership between donor and recipient countries, willingness and past achievements of recipient countries, cooperation and harmonization between donor countries/organizations. Finally, the implications for North Korea were derived by analyzing the characteristics of these implementation of conditionalities applied to developing countries, transition countries, and low-income stress countries (LICUS).

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