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2009-2015년 중국과 러시아의 중앙아시아에서의 협력과 경쟁

Sino-Russian Competition and Cooperation in Central Asia During 2009-2015

김연규
국가안보전략연구원 (Institute for National Security Strategy)|2015.06|국가안보와 전략 (National Security and Strategy)|제15권 제2호|pp. 1-40|DOI 10.23111/nsas.2015.15.2.001

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키워드

중앙아시아실크로드거대게임Afghanistan중·러 전략적 협력Sino-Russian Cooperation. Central Asia
주제분류정치외교학

초록

최근 중앙아시아지역질서의 뚜렷한 추세 가운데 한 가지는 미국과 유럽의 중앙아시아에서의 영향력 감소이다. 2011-2014년은 중앙아시아 세력관계의 일대 전환점으로 2014년 말의 미군 철수는 20여년 지속된 미국의 중앙아시아 지배 정책에 중대 전환점을 알리는 신호이며, 미국 이후 중앙아시아 지배권에 관해 러시아와 중국의 협력과 경쟁이 어떤 향후 중앙아시아에서의 강대국 세력관계를 결정할 요인이다. 본 논문의 목적은 중앙아시아 지역에서 2009-2015년 동안 중국과 러시아가 벌이고 있는 군사·안보, 에너지·경제, 물류·운송망 구축 차원에서의 경쟁과 협력을 분석하는 것이다. 이를 위해 본 논문은 1991-2008년 중앙아시아에서의 중•러 전략적 협력의 내용과 동인을 살펴보고 2009-2015년 중국과 러시아의 군사·안보, 에너지·경제, 물류·운송망 정책, 중앙아시아 5개국 개별국가에서 벌어지는 중국과 러시아의 경쟁을 살펴본다.

Abstract

With the planned US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 looming ever closer and Central Asia’s own future increasingly in doubt, major powers are all competing to enhance their influence in Central Asia. 2014 may mark a regional tipping point, but none can accurately predict how the regional balance might shift after the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. During 2009-2010, the signs of growing Russian dependence on China in economics and energy were palpable as were the signs of China successfully subordinating Russia to its Central Asian economic agenda. In 2011-2012, it was difficult to see Russia simply acquiescing in its subordination to China without reacting to that situation negatively. Since 2011, to avoid this dependence on China, Russia has vigorously pushed for its regional integration schemes. 2011 marked the launch of the US New Silk Road initiative. Great power regional integration shemes, however, undermine both regional and national development.

참고문헌 (55)

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러시아-미국 관계발전과 중앙아시아 지역:푸틴 3기 정권을 중심으로윤익중아태지역연구센터 · 중소연구2016 · 제40권 제3호상하이협력기구(SCO)를 통하여 본 러시아와 중국 관계: 러시아의 우려와 대응문수언사회과학연구소 · 사회과학논총2011 · 제13호미국의 군사적 영향력 확대와 러시아의 대응김선래국제지역연구원 · 아태연구2009 · 제16권 제2호21세기 러시아의 중앙아시아 국가전략 -푸틴 집권기 중앙아시아 정책의 기본 방향과 특성을 중심으로-박정호러시아연구소 · 슬라브硏究2009 · 제25권 제2호러시아-중국 안보 군사협력 관계의 변화와 전망신범식아태지역연구센터 · 중소연구2007 · 제30권 제4호중앙아시아에 대한 러시아의 영향력 확대 원인과 메커니즘이홍섭아태지역연구센터 · 중소연구2018 · 제42권 제1호

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