미⋅중 전략경쟁, 전쟁으로 갈 것인가? : 세력우위론적 접근
Will Strategic Competition Between the United States and China Erupt in War?: Power Preponderance Perspective
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초록
오늘날 글로벌 차원에서 미국과 중국 간의 전략경쟁이 심화되면서 양국간의 실질적인 충돌 가능성을 배제할 수 없게 되었다. 본 연구는 톰슨, 브레키, 슈웰러의 극체제 분류에 따라 현존의 극체제를 경제력(GDP), 군사력(국방비), 총체적 국력(GPI)에 따라 분석했다. 그 결과 미국 우위의 단극체제가 중국 부상 속에서 점진적으로 변화하고 있다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 세력우위론은 도전국의 국력이 패권국과 대등해지는 과정에서 충돌(전쟁) 가능성을 논한다. 중국은 1970년대 말 개혁⋅개방을 추구하며 오늘날경제력과 군사력 및 총체적 국력에서 각각 세계 2위의 강대국이 되었다. 이를 기반으로 중국은 미국 중심 현존 체제에 대한 현상변경을 추구하고 있다. 현시점에서 중국, 강대국에서의 중국 진영, 범지구적 차원에서의 중국세력권 모두 경제력, 군사력, 총체적 국력에서 미국을 위시한 미국 진영 및미국 세력권에 상당한 열세라는 점에서 양국 간의 실질적인 충돌 가능성은낮다. 그러나 세력우위론에 따르면 중국이 경제력, 군사력, 총체적 국력 모두에서 미국과 비등해질 경우 미⋅중 간의 충돌 가능성을 배제하지 못한다. 중국은 2049년까지 부강한 사회주의 강대국 건설의 완성을 추구하고 있고, 미국은 이러한 중국을 현존 체제의 유일한 도전자로 보며 저지 의사를 명확히 하고 있다. 미⋅중이 각기 지향하는 목표가 상충한다는 점에서 양국 간의 갈등이 더욱 고조되고 있다.
Abstract
As strategic competition between the U.S. and China intensifies, the possibility of a substantial conflict between the two powers cannot be ruled out. Based on William Thompson, Peter Brecke, and Randall Schweller’s international system’s polarity classification, the study analyzed the current polarity using economic power (GDP), military power (military expenditure), and national power (Global Power Index [GPI]). As a result, China’s rise in the current U.S.-dominated international system was witnessed. The power preponderance theory, referring to the power transition theory and the hegemonic stability theory, discusses the possibility of a power transition between the hegemonic state and the potential challenger when the challenger’s national power equals that of the hegemonic state. In the late 1970s, China pursued the so-called Open Door Policy and became the world’s second-largest state in terms of economic, military, and national power. Based on this, China has become a revisionist state and seeks to replace the existing system. Given that China, China’s Bloc among great powers, and China’s influence spheres are all inferior to the U.S. in terms of economic, military, and national power, the possibility of substantial conflict between the two countries is currently low. However, if China becomes equivalent to the United States regarding economic, military, and overall national power, the possibility of a war between the U.S. and China cannot be ruled out. China is seeking to build a ‘China-styled’ modern socialist superpower by 2049, and the U.S. clearly intends to block it, seeing China as the only challenger to the current international system. As the U.S. and China have conflicting goals, the tension between the two countries is escalating.
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