중국의 불만족 증대와 국제질서에 대한 도전: 세력전이이론에 대한 재탐
China’s Dissatisfaction and Struggle for the Status quo: A New perspective from the Power Transition Theory
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초록
본 연구는 중국이 미국이 주도하는 현 국제질서에 과연 도전을 할 것인가? 라는 고전적 질문에 대한 해석이다. 동시에 기존 세력전이 관련 경험연구의 한계를 극복하고, 도전국의 불만족 변수에 대한 새로운 탐색을 시도하였다. 우선, 미국 주도 군사질서에대항하여 군사비용 등 중국의 종합군사력이 증대되고 있다. 둘째, 중국의 권위주의 레짐과 민주주의에 대한 인식은 서구의 민주주의 체제와 본질적으로 이질적이다. 셋째, 중국은 사실상 미국을 적으로 상정하는 중국식 동맹을 확대하고 있다. 마지막으로 중국은 새로운 규범과 제도를 창조하고 있다. 이러한 현상들은 모두 중국이 현 국제질서에만족하지 않는다는 것을 의미한다. 세력전이이론이 확률적 가정을 하고 있다는 점을 감안해서, 결국 현 질서에 불만족스러운 중국의 부상은 평화롭기보다는 공세적일 확률이높고, 이 과정에서 충돌과 균열 심지어 세력전이 전쟁의 가능성까지도 배제할 수 없는것이다.
Abstract
This study tries to comprehensively answer the classic question, whether China will challenge the current US-led order. At the same time, it is expected to overcome the limitations of empirical research in the Power Transition Theory and discover new dissatisfaction variables. First, China is increasing its comprehensive military capabilities, including defense budgets against the US-led military order. Second, Chinese authoritarian regimes and democracy are inevitably be alienated from the Western democratic system. Third, China is expanding the Chinese- styled alliance system that is likely to regard the US as an enemy. Lastly, China is even creating its new norms and architecture. These phenomena imply that China is dissatisfied with the current order. Given that Power Transition Theory has a probabilistic assumption, the rise of China, unhappy with the current order after all, is more likely to be offensive than peaceful, and clashes and cracks in the process, even the possibility of a power war, cannot be ruled out.
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