북한 전략무기 기술 수준과 군사전략 간 관계 분석 : 상호 구성적 접근

Abstract

North Korea’s Five-Year Plan for National Defense Development (2021– 2025) signals a structural shift in its military strategy through the accelerated development of strategic weapons such as ICBMs, hypersonic glide vehicles, tactical nuclear weapons, and reconnaissance satellites. This study analyzes how these developments shape North Korea’s military strategy by theorizing the co-constitutive relationship between technological maturity and strategic choice. To this end, it establishes a multi-stage analytical framework linking technology, operational functions, military capabilities, strategic effects, and military strategy. Applying this framework, the study identifies both the target and current technological levels of six key strategic weapon systems and derives the corresponding military strategies for each level. The analysis finds that if North Korea achieves its target technological levels, it would be capable of pursuing a dual-track strategy combining credible nuclear retaliation against the United States with limited nuclear operations against South Korea, ultimately aimed at securing regime stability in peacetime and enabling a force-based reordering of the Korean Peninsula in wartime. In contrast, under current technological limitations, North Korea’s military strategy is likely to be constrained to symbolic retaliatory capabilities toward the U.S. and credible strike options against the South, with corresponding strategic goals of preserving regime security and shaping favorable conditions for negotiation. Policy-wise, the findings highlight the need for South Korea to pursue a dual approach: reinforcing the credibility of extended deterrence through the U.S.–ROK alliance, and advancing a technology-driven asymmetric offset strategy. Theoretically, the study contributes by offering a structured framework for inferring the military strategies of closed states based on the maturity of their strategic weapons programs.