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금융발전과 경제성장 - 국제비교를 통한 재해석

Financial Development and Economic Growth : A Reinterpretation from the International Viewpoint

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주제분류무역학

초록

본 논문은 금융발전과 경제성장의 인과관계에 관한 지난 반세기에 걸친 연구결과에 대해 다음 두 가지 문제의식을 가지고 재해석해본 논문이다. 첫째는 역사적으로 금융자유화와 금융발전 이후에는 반드시 금융위기가 찾아온다는 사실이다. 둘째는 금융자유화 개혁을 통한 외형적인 금융발전에도 불구하고 수많은 저개발국가의 경제성장은 여전히 실망스러운 수준인 현실이다. 이러한 문제의식 하에 다음 두 가지 연구방향을 제시하였다. 먼저 금융발전이 항상 금융위기를 배태하고 있다면 금융위기에 따른 경제비용을 차감한 금융발전의 순편익을 계산해냄으로써 금융발전이 경제성장에 미치는 효과를 정확하게 추정할 수 있다. 다음으로, 경제발전의 관점에서 금융발전을 살펴보면 금융발전 가운데 생산적 투자에 자금을 공급하는 은행의 기업대출과 자본시장으로부터의 자금조달을 주택담보대출이나 그 밖의 소비자금융보다 더욱 중요하게 봄으로써 금융시스템의 발전이나 경제성장 정책에 대한 보다 균형 잡힌 정책함의를 이끌어낼 수 있다.

Abstract

This is a survey paper that reinterprets the results of over half-century research on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. The following two puzzles make us attempt a reinterpretation on this issue. One is the fact that in retrospect financial liberalization or financial development almost always leads to financial crisis. The other is that despite the financial development through financial liberalization most underdeveloped countries still have showed very low growth rates. To solve these puzzles, we suggest two research ideas. First, if some part of financial development is in fact 'financial bubble' that conceives crisis, then we should analyze the finance-growth nexus by taking the cost of crisis into explicit account. Second, we can get more effective policy implications on the influence of financial development on economic growth when we put more weight on that part of economic development leading to productive investment such as business loan and primary capital market.

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