Finance and Economic Development in China
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초록
본 논문은 다음의 두 가지 이슈에 대해 분석하였다. 첫째, 중국에서 금융발전이 경제성장에 기여하는 정도를 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 기존에 잘 알려진 금융발전지수를 사용하여 경제성장과 금융발전간의 장기적인 관계를 찾아보았다. 둘째, 금융억압이 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 세 가지 관련 지수를 종합하여 금융억압지수를 만들고 이를 추정식에 사용하였다. 추정에 사용된 세 가지 금융발전지수는 유동성 부채, 국내여신, 비정책금융여신을 GDP로 나눈 수치이며, 이 세 지수는 성장과 양의 장기적이고 안정적인 관계를 가졌다. 또한 성장은 금융발전에 대해서 약외생성을 가지는 반면 금융발전은 성장에 대해 약외생성을 가지지 않았다. 금융억압은 분석기간 동안 성장에 부정적인 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다. 또한 금융발전지수와는 달리 금융억압지수는 약외생적인 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This paper focuses on the following two issues. First, the paper investigates the extent to which financial development has contributed to economic growth in China. For this purpose, we utilize well-known financial development indicators and seek to find a long-run relationship between output growth and financial development. Second, the effects of financial repression on economic growth are examined. A financial repression index is constructed based on three related measures, and this index is augmented to the growth-finance equation. Empirical results show that, three financial development indicators, Liquid Liabilities, Domestic Credit and Non-Policy Loan, have stable positive long-run relationships with output growth. It is also found that output growth is weakly exogenous with respect to financial development, whereas financial development is not with respect to output growth. As for the financial repression, it turns out to have affected output growth negatively during the sample period. Unlike financial development indicators, financial repression index is found to be weakly exogenous.
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