과잉금융가설과 금융위기비용
‘Too Much Finance Hypothesis’ and the Cost of Financial Crisis
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초록
글로벌 금융위기 이후 금융과 실물경제 간 상호연관성에 대한 관심이 급증하였다. 과잉금융가설은 금융발전이 경제성장을 촉진하지만, 일정수준을 넘어서게 되면 오히려 부정적으로 작용할 수 있다고 주장한다. 본고는 과잉금융가설이 성립하는지와, 만약 그렇다면 그 원인이 금융위기가 초래하는 실물비용 때문인지를 검증하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 OECD 36개국의 1973∼2017년 기간 패널자료를 활용하여 금융발전과 경제성장 간의 관계를 추정한 후, 금융위기가 이러한 관계에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 분석하였다, 추정 결과, 금융발전과 경제성장 간에는 역U자 관계가 존재하여 과잉금융가설이 성립하고, 과잉금융현상은 금융위기로 인한 부정적 충격이 없는 시기에도 존재하는 것으로 관측되었다. 또한 금융위기는 금융발전과 성장 간의 관계를 전반적으로 약화시키며 과잉금융이 나타나는 임계치를 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 정책당국은 과잉금융으로 인한 비효율적 자원배분을 경계하고, 금융부문의 효율적 자원배분과 건전성 제고를 위한 감독이 강화되어야 할 것이다. 또한 금융위기가 금융발전의 정도와 관계없이 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 만큼, 금융위기의 발생을 미연에 방지하고 또한 위기발생시 금융시장에 미치는 효과를 조기에 차단하기 위한 정책적 노력이 필요할 것이다.
Abstract
Since the 2008 global financial crisis, interest in the relationship between financial sector and real economy has risen again. The hypothesis of ‘Too Much Finance’ suggests that while financial development accelerates economic growth, it can also have an adverse effect once it pasts a threshold. Based on the experience of developed countries, this hypothesis may be reasonable. However, it is not clear why financial ‘overdevelopment’ becomes more likely to harm its economic growth. In this paper, we investigate whether ‘Too Much Finance Hypothesis’ makes sense and if so, it is due to the cost of the financial crisis. Using 36 OECD countries’ panel data from 1973 to 2017, we analyze how the cost of financial crisis affects the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Our empirical results suggest that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial development and economic growth. Moreover, the hypothesis is still valid even if there is no negative impact from a financial crisis. As the financial crisis weakens the effect of financial development on economic growth, it also increases the critical point of ‘Too Much Finance’. Our findings suggest that policymakers should focus on surveillance and supervision of inefficiency in resource allocation in the financial market, as well as preventing a financial crisis beforehand.
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