청정개발체제(CDM)사업의 지속가능 발전 편익과 기후변화 대응 편익의 비교
A Comparison Between the Sustainable Development(SD) Benefits and Climate Change(CC) Benefits of Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) Projects
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초록
청정개발체제(CDM)은 교토의정서에 의한 선진국의 감축 의무를 도와주고 개도국의 지속가능한 발전을 지원하는 시장기구로서 비약적인 발전을 보이고 있다. 그러나 선진국에게 돌아가는 온실가스 저감 편익(CC)와 개도국이 받는 지속가능발전편익(SD) 사이에 불평등이 존재한다는 지적이 있다. 즉, CC와 SD 사이에 trade-off 관계가 있다는 것이다. 본고에서는 CC와 SD 사이에 상호 trade-off 관계가 있는지를 파악한다. 이를 위하여 네 가지 서로 다른 유형의 CDM 사업을 평가 대상으로 선정하였다. 각 사업에 대한 SD 평가는 다속성효용이론(MAUT) 방법론을 이용하여 12개의 지속가능성 지표를 설정하고 각각의 효용을 정량화하였다. 또한 각 효용의 가중치 설정을 위하여 AHP 설문을 실시하였다. 이후 각 효용의 가중합을 합쳐 사업별 SD를 산출하였다. 또한 각 사업의 CC는 각 사업이 받는 CER로 대체하였다. 그 결과 CER이 많은 HFC와 N2O의 SD는 각각 -4.604, 0.719인 반면 CER이 적은 매립가스와 풍력발전의 SD는 23.476, 49.460으로 CC와 SD 사이에 trade-off 관계가 있음이 관찰되었다. 또한 투자국과 투자유치국이 받는 편익의 상대적 형평을 알아보기 위하여 SD를 CC로 나눈 값 즉 CS ratio를 구하여 비교 기준(benchmark)과 상호 비교하였다. 기준의 CC는 사업당 평균 CER을 설정하고 SD는 정책적으로 결정될 일이나 비교를 위하여 25와 50을 각각 제시하였다. 그 결과 대상 사업 중 CS ratio는 N2O가 0.000082, HFC가 -0.00234, 매립가스가 0.028048, 풍력발전이 0.34831로 나타나 풍력발전만이 benchmark 0.183824(SD=25)를 상회하는 사업 즉 개도국에 주는 SD가 기준보다 높은 사업임을 입증할 수 있었다.
Abstract
The Clean Develoment Mechanism(CDM) is a market mechanism which is designed to facilitate the emission reduction commitment of Annex I countries as well as to assist the sustainable development of the developing countries. It is expanding very rapidly but there is a criticism that there is trade-offs between climate change benefits(CC) and sustainable development benefits(SD). This paper is to check if there is really trade-off between CC and SD. Four different projects were chosen and SD was evaluated by multi-attributes utility theory(MAUT). 12 sustainability indicators were selected and its utility functions were defined. In order to give weight to each indicator, AHP survey was conducted. Total SD was calculated by summing up each weighted utility. In the meanwhile, CC was substituted by CER issued for each project. The result showed that HFC and N2O with more CER had lower SD of -4.604 and -2.581 while LFG and windmill with less CER had higher SD of 23.476 and 49.460 respectively. It means there is trade-off relation between CC and SD. Also in order to check if there is any inequality between investing party and host party, CS ration was calculated and compared with benchmark. SD in the benchmark was suggested to be 25 or 50 by political decision and CC was proposed to be the average CER of CDM project. The result was that CS ratio for N2O was -0.00029, HFC -0.00234, LFG +0.028048, windmill +0.34831 respectively. Windmill proved to be most beneficial project to Korea compared with other project while N2O and HFC proved to be less beneficial to Korea.
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