청정개발체제(CDM)사업의 지속가능성평가 지표 개발 －다기준분석법(MCA)을 활용하여－
The Development of the Sustainability Appraisal Indicators for Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) Projects by Multi-Criteria Analysis(MCA)
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교토의정서에 따른 청정개발체제(Clean Development Mechanism, CDM) 사업은 두 가지 목적을 가지고 있다. 하나는 온실가스 감축의무가 있는 나라가 다른 나라에서 온실가스 감축사업을 하여 생긴 감축량으로 자국의 감축의무 이행에 사용할 수 있게 허용하여 비용효과적인 감축의무 이행을 도와주는 것이고 다른 하나는 개발도상국에 대한 투자를 통해 개도국에 기술 이전과 지속가능한 발전을 도모하는 것이다. 그러나 CDM 사업의 현실을 보면 전자의 목적은 달성하고 있으나 후자의 목적은 별로 충족하지 못하고 있다는 지적이 많다. 양 춘 승·박 성 환·박 중 구 * 교신저자 : pig@snut.ac.kr양춘승·박성환·박중구. 2009. 청정개발체제(CDM)사업의 지속가능성 평가 지표 개발. 환경정책연구 8(2)：83~118 본 연구는 이러한 상황을 반영하여 우리나라에 맞는 지속가능성 평가 기준을 제시하고자 시도하였다. 여러 가지 의사결정 방법론을 비교하여 다기준분석법(MCA)의 하나인 다속성효용이론(MAUT)을 이용하는 것이 가장 유용하다는 판단에 따라 그에 적절한 요건을 갖는 지속가능성 기준을 파악하고자 하였다. 국내에서는 초기단계에 있는 연구이기 때문에, 국내 전문가의 의견만으로는 보편적·국제적 기준을 놓칠 우려가 있어 외국의 사례에 대한 광범위한 조사를 하였다. 국내 전문가들에게는 GRI가 제시한 기준과 국내외 사례에서 뽑은 37개의 예비 기준을 제시하여 지표의 적합성(relevance), 개선 가능성(possibility of real improvement), 자료수집의 용이성(easiness of data collection), 주관적 선호도(preferences) 등 네 가지 측면에서 1-3점을 각각 부여하도록 설문하였다. 분석 결과는 외국의 11개 사례에서 나온 상위 15개 기준과 국내 설문 결과 상위 15위 기준을 취합하여 12개의 핵심 기준과 10개의 부가 기준을 제시할 수 있었다. 이후 이를 구체적 사업에 적용하여 사례 분석을 시도하였다. 평가 대상 사업으로는 세계 최대의 조력발전 CDM 사업인 “시화호 발전사업”을 선정하고 핵심 지표 12개에 의미있다고 판단되는 3개의 부가지표를 더해 총 15개의 적용 지표를 선정한 후, 각 지표별 가중치 설정을 위하여 경제, 환경 사회 각 부문의 전문가에게 두 기준 간의 상대적 선호도를 묻는 AHP 설문을 수행하였다. 이를 Expert Choice라는 전문 소프트웨어를 이용하여 분석하였다. 일관성이 확인된 14명의 응답을 기준으로 종합 점수를 계산한 결과 (+)53.082의 점수가 확인되었고 다양한 경우에 대한 민감도 분석의 결과도 모두 (+)44.667과 (+)65.522 사이에 분포하여 지속가능한 발전에 기여하는 순편익이 더 높은 것으로 확인되었다.
Abstract
Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) projects under the Kyoto Protocol have two objectives. One is to assist the Parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments in cost-effective ways by allowing them to implement emission reduction projects in Non-Annex I countries and receive CERs, which will offset their reduction commitments. The other is to assist Parties not included in Annex I in achieving sustainable development and technology transfers through investments by Annex I countries. However, in reality, it is said that the former objective is achievable but the latter is not. In this light, this article suggests sustainability appraisal criteria applicable for Korea. Among various methodologies, we used the ‘multi-attributes utility theory(MAUT)'; one of the 'multi-criteria analysis (MCA)' methodologies judged to be the most practical and relevant. Based on the guidelines of the MAUT methodology, we identified sustainabilitycriteria that meet the guidelines. We took two tracks, the first to find the preferences of Korean experts, and the other to check foreign cases. In all, 37 preliminary criteria were suggested to Korean experts and each criterion was scored, from between 1 and 3, in terms of relevance, possibility of real improvement, easiness of data collection, and preferences. We combined foreign cases and the results of a survey conducted in Korea and selected 12 core criteria and 10 additional criteria. After that, all the criteria were converted into indicators. The indicators were applied to a CDM project for case study. We chose the "Sihwa Tidal Power Project", which is currently the biggest tidal power plant in the world. Twelve core indicators and 3 additional indicators were applied. In order to weight each indicator, the ‘analytical hierarchy process (AHP)' was used. A total of 30 experts were asked to suggest weights and 21 answered. Among them, only 14 respondents were proven to meet the consistency ratio. Weanalyzed the 14 responses through Expert Choice and the CDM project was scored (+)53.082. In addition, sensitivity analysis was undertaken with the result of (+)44.667 to (+)65.522. As a result of this study, it was proven that this project would contribute to the sustainable development of Korea.
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