무역구조와 경기변동의 동조성
Trade Structure and Output Correlations
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초록
이 논문은 국가 간 경기변동의 동조성을 연구하는데 보편적으로 쓰이는 무역집중도 지수가 특화의 정도, 산업내무역의 강도, 교역국의 상대적 크기의 합으로 표현될 수 있음을 보이고, 이 관계를 이용하여 이들 변수가 경기변동의 동조성에 미치는 영향을 통합적인 시각에서 분석한다. 고소득 국가와 저소득 국가를 모두 포함하는 패널 자료에서 교역국간 특화의 정도는 OLS와 고정효과 모형에서 모두 경기동조성에 강한 음의 영향을 미치는 것으로 추정된다. 이는 통화동맹이 주로 특화의 심화를 통하여 무역을 증대시킨다면 통화동맹으로 동맹국 간 경기동조성이 감소할 수 있음을 시사해준다.
Abstract
This paper shows that the measure of trade intensity frequently used in the study of output correlations can be decomposed into three variables: the degree of specialization, the intensity of intra-industry trade and the relative size of trading partners. Using this relationship, we analyze the effect of trade on output correlations from an integrated perspective. In a panel including both high-income and low-income countries, we find that specialization has a strong negative effect on output correlations both in OLS and fixed effects estimation. This suggests that a currency union will decrease output correlations among member countries if it expands trade mainly by intensifying specialization.
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