글로벌 생산네트워크가 산업간 경기동조화에 미치는 영향 분석
The Effect of Global Production Network on Inter-Industry Business Cycle Synchronization
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초록
본 논문은 글로벌 생산네트워크의 심화가 산업간 경기동조화에 미치는 영향을 35개국 34개 산업의 1995~2006년 기간 동안의 자료를 통해 실증 분석하였다. 분석 결과에 의하면 글로벌 생산네트워크의 심화, 즉 국제적 중간재 거래의 증가는 산업간 국제적 경기동조화에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 글로벌 생산네트워크가 심화될수록 이로 인해 해당 산업간 경기동조화 정도가 심화되며, 이는 직접적인 중간재 투입-산출 거래뿐만 아니라 다른 산업을 통한 간접적인 거래를 통해서도 영향을 받는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 분석 결과는 개별 산업의 경기 변동을 설명함에 있어 해당 산업의 개별적인 충격뿐만 아니라 글로벌 생산네트워크를 통해 밀접하게 연결된 상대 산업의 경기 변동과 글로벌 생산네트워크를 통한 파급의 정도를 고려해야 한다는 것을 의미한다.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the effects of global production network on inter-industry business cycle synchronization using international input-output database during 1995~2006 period. In the paper, global production network is measured in inter-industry intermediate goods trade which is generally used in previous studies. As a result of analysis, we have found that, as industries get more deeply involved into global production network, the business cycle among industries becomes more synchronized. Specially, this occurs not only between industries which involves in the trade directly, but also among those with indirect participation through other industries. This results can be seen that, when we predict the fluctuation of business cycle in individual industry, it should be considered how deeply the industry participates in the global production network locally and internationally among industries.
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