경기변동이 기업수준 일자리 조정에 미치는 영향: 기업특성별 이질적 반응을 중심으로
The Effects of Business Cycles on Firm Level Job Creation: Focusing on the Heterogeneous Effects by Firm Level Characteristics
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초록
본 연구는 1992년∼2012년까지의 광업제조업조사 자료를 활용하여 경기변동에 따라 고용조정의 반응이 기업별로 상이하게 나타날 가능성을 분포분석과 Heckman류의 2단계 선택모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 추정 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 고용증가율 분포의 평균 및 왜도는 경기순행적으로 나타났으며, 표준편차와 첨도의 경기 상관성은 확인되지 않았다. 둘째, 고용증가율 분포 상의 양극단 구간에 위치한 기업이 평균 부근에 위치한 기업에 비해 경기에 더 민감한 것으로 추정되었다. 셋째, 고용의 상향 조정크기는 경기순행적이며 이러한 경기 순행적 특성은 기업규모가 커짐에 따라 확대되었다. 한편, 경기국면에 따른 고용 조정크기는고용이 증가할 때와 감소할 때에 각각 다르게 나타나는 비대칭적 특성이 존재하였다. 또한, 기술수준이 가장 높은 첨단기술 업종의 경우 기업규모에 상관없이 고용 조정의 크기가 경기에영향을 받지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 경기변동이 고용에 미치는 영향이 개별 기업의 성장패턴, 규모, 업종 등 기업특성에 따라 이질적으로 나타남에 따라 경기변동에 따른 안정화 정책에있어 개별 기업의 특성을 감안한 차별적 대응이 필요함을 시사한다.
Abstract
This paper uses distribution analysis and Heckman’s two-step selection model to analyze panel data from the Mining and Manufacturing Survey from 1992 to 2012. We use these methods to find the heterogeneous effects of business cycles on individual firm level job creation. The results are as follows. Firstly, the mean and skewness of the distribution of job creation rates show procyclical characteristics, and there is no significant cyclicality in the standard deviation and kurtosis. Secondly, the two extreme sections (very small or very large) of job creation rates are shown to be more sensitive to the business cycles than the section of average job creation rates. Thirdly, the size of upward adjustment is procyclical, and this procycality tends to be more prevalent among larger firms. Furthermore, the size of adjustment are asymmetric for upward and downward adjustment. Fifthly, the size of upward adjustment of firms who have high technology remain unaffected by business cycle regardless of their size. Because many firm-specific differences can affect the effects of business cycles on firm level job creation, we must have separate policies which take the firms’ individual characteristics in to consideration in order to reach job stability during each part of the business cycle.
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