경기변동과 임시일용직 고용
Comparing Cyclical Behaviors of Temporary and Permanent Employment
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초록
본 연구는 1980년 이후의 분기별 자료를 이용하여 우리나라 상용직과 임시일용직의 순환변동 행태에 관한 실증적 분석을 수행한다. 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 임시일용직 순환은 상용직 순환보다 변동폭이 크다. 둘째, 임시일용직 순환은 실질GDP를 1분기 선행하지만 상용직 순환은 실질GDP에 2분기 후행한다. 셋째, 임시일용직의 경우에는 저점이 정점보다 평균으로부터 더 멀리 떨어진 진폭의 비대칭성이 관찰되지만 조정 속도는 대칭적이다. 상용직의 경우에는 진폭은 대칭적이지만 수축이 확장보다 빠르게 진행된다. 넷째, 임시일용직 순환은 시간가역적인 반면, 상용직 순환은 시간비가역적이다. 이와 같은 결과는 우리나라에서 고용조정이 종사상 지위 간에 매우 이질적인 양상으로 진행되고 있음을 보여준다.
Abstract
This paper investigates the cyclical behaviors of temporary and permanent employment using the Korean quarterly time series data from 1980:Q1 to 2008:Q2. Our findings are summarized as follows: (1)The cyclical behavior of temporary employment is more volatile than that of permanent employment. (2)Temporary employment leads output by one quarter, whereas permanent employment lags output by two quarters. (3)Evidence of deepness is found for temporary employment, while the evidence for permanent employment is weaker. Permanent employment, however, exhibits steepness that temporary employment does not have. (4)Temporary employment series is time-reversible; in contrast, permanent employment series is time- irreversible. After all, these results show that the two types of employment, temporary and permanent one, are adjusted highly heterogeneously over a course of a business cycle.
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