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패널 VAR를 이용한 부가가치 기준 무역과 경제성장과의 인과관계 분석

A Study on Causal Relationship between Trade in Value-Added and Economic Growth Using Panel-VAR

김보례
한국국제통상학회 (The Korean Association of Trade and Industry Studies)|2015.03|국제통상연구 (Journal of International Trade and Industry Studies)|제20권 제1호|pp. 123-154

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참고문헌

키워드

고정효과모형Granger 인과관계충격반응함수패널 VARGranger Causality부가가치 기준 무역Trade in Value-addedFixed Effect modelPanel-VarImpulse-response function
주제분류무역학

초록

1990년대 중반 이후 글로벌 가치사슬이 심화되어 기존의 무역통계는 국가 간의교역구조를 파악하는데 적절한 지표가 아니라는 문제가 제기되기 시작하였다. 이에 본 논문에서는 세계투입산출표를 이용하여 1995～2009년간의 부가가치 기준무역이라는 새로운 무역통계를 산출하고 이와 경제성장과의 관계를 패널 VAR를이용한 Granger 인과관계 분석을 하였다. 그 결과 산업별 소득 수준별로 결과에약간의 차이는 있으나 대체로 부가가치 이입(부가가치 기준으로 본 수출)과 경제성장과는 양방향 인과관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다.

Abstract

Recently the production processes from material procurement tomarketing have been split up into many stages and the value added fromthe production was divided among various countries. Therefore, we needto approach the international trade in terms of value added rather thangross value. So following Stephrer(2012)'s methodology, this paper firstlymeasures “Trade in Value added” database using World Input-OutputTables(WIOT). We also examines the causal relationship between economic growth(agross value of domestic production) and export of trade in value addedusing panel VAR model. Our test supports the export-led growthhypothesis when we test causal relationship between export of gross tradeand economic growth. However almost all results represent that there aretwo-way causalities between export of trade in value-added and economicgrowth.

참고문헌 (44)

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