글로벌 가치사슬 변화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향: 2008년 금융위기 전후 전․후방참여 효과의 국제비교를 중심으로
Effects of Global Value Chains on Economic Growth and Their Changes after Global Financial Crisis
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본 연구는 세계투입산출표 데이터(World Input-Output Database, WIOD)를 이용하여 2000～2014년 중 글로벌 가치사슬(Global Value Chain, GVC)의 변화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 세계교역 규모가 구조적인 감소세를 보이고 있음에 따라 위기 전후 비교 분석을 통하여 GVC 전․후방참여가 각 국의 성장에 미치는 효과에 어떠한 변화가 있었는지 살펴보았다. 또한 제조업과 서비스업의 GVC 참여 효과를 비교 분석하는 한편, 선진국과 개발도상국을 대상으로 한 GVC 전․후방참여 효과도 비교 분석하였다. 국가 간 패널모형을 추정한 결과에 따르면 글로벌 금융위기를 전후로 하여 GVC 전․후방참여가 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 유의한 변화가 발생하였다. 제조업 GVC 전․후방 참여의 경제성장 제고효과는 위기 이후 모두 강화되었는데, 후방참여 보다는 전방참여 효과의 강화가 두드러졌다. 개발도상국 대상 GVC의 경우 전방참여 효과가 위기 이후 크게 증가하였으며, 선진국 대상 GVC의 경우 후방참여 효과가 다소 증가한 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This paper empirically investigates the effects of the global value chains (GVC) on economic growth using the World Input-Output Database with 43 countries for the period of 2000-2014. As the GVC has weakened since the global financial crisis, we particularly focus on post-crisis changes in the effects of forward and backward participation in the GVC on economic growth. In addition, we compare the effects on the manufacturing and service sectors, and also compare the effects for advanced and emerging economies. The results from our panel regression analysis show that the economic growth effects of GVC participation have changed significantly since the crisis. Specifically, the forward and backward GVC participation effects for the manufacturing sector increased in the post-crisis period. Also, the positive effects of forward participation for emerging economies and backward participation for advanced economies increased after the crisis.
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