본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

패널분석을 이용한 대도시 주택가격 추이 분석

A Panel Analysis of House Price Trends of Major Largest Cities in Korea

0

조회

0

다운로드

11

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류경제학

초록

That housing market under strong influence of macro economic and financial marketfactors is a norm since the global financial crisis, and much effort is put in to analyse theirrelationship. However, housing market is undeniably a local market, and local supply anddemand factors affect house prices. Neither cross section approach nor time seriesapproach alone can deal with both aspects of housing market. We employ panel regressiontechnique to separate influence of macro economic factors and local supply and demandfactors in the changes of house prices of major cities in Korea during the period of 2000to 2011. The result shows that for our sample local supply and demand factors weredominant in determining house prices, and except for year-specific fixed effects, nationalmacro variables such as GDP and interest rate did not significantly affect the house pricetrends of the major cities.

Abstract

That housing market under strong influence of macro economic and financial marketfactors is a norm since the global financial crisis, and much effort is put in to analyse theirrelationship. However, housing market is undeniably a local market, and local supply anddemand factors affect house prices. Neither cross section approach nor time seriesapproach alone can deal with both aspects of housing market. We employ panel regressiontechnique to separate influence of macro economic factors and local supply and demandfactors in the changes of house prices of major cities in Korea during the period of 2000to 2011. The result shows that for our sample local supply and demand factors weredominant in determining house prices, and except for year-specific fixed effects, nationalmacro variables such as GDP and interest rate did not significantly affect the house pricetrends of the major cities.

참고문헌 (15)

  1. 김경환, "주택경기예측모형 연구1" (2004), 주택산업연구원
  2. 박헌주, "토지시장 전망", 국토연구, 통권 : 232, pp.13~21 (2001), 국토연구원
  3. 서승환, "지가 불안정성의 영향 및 결정요인", 주택연구, 9(1), pp.57~74 (2001), 한국주택학회
  4. 민인식, "STATA 패널데이터 분석" (2009), 한국STATA학회
  5. 손재영, "분양가 자율화와 주택의 질", 부동산학연구, 15(3), pp.71~88 (2009), 한국부동산분석학회
  6. 우경, "개입- ARIMA모형을이용한 지가변동예측에관한연구 : 지역별하부토지시장을중심으로", 국토연구, 35통권 : 35, pp.4~64 (2002), 국토연구원
  7. VAR모형 구축을 통한 토지 및 주택시장 전망 연구, "윤주현", 국토연구원, ~ (2001)
  8. 주택시장 경기동향 및 단기전망 연구, "윤주현", 국토연구원, ~ (2001)
  9. 이상경, "서울 주택시장으로부터 지방 주택시장으로의 가겨 및 변동성 이전효과 연구", 국토계획, 38(7), pp.81~90 (2003), 대한국토·도시계획학회
  10. 이영훈, "선형패널자료모형에 관한 문헌연구", 계량경제학보, 15(1) (2001)
  11. 이준용, "자료 주기에 따른 벡터시계열모형 결과의 차이: 서울시 아파트 시장의 분석사례", 주택연구, 18(2), pp.117~139 (2010), 한국주택학회
  12. 임재만, "주택매매가격의 변동성에 관한 연구", 주택연구, 14(2), pp.65~84 (2006), 한국주택학회
  13. 주택시장 분석과 정책과제 연구, "차문중", 한국개발연구원, ~ (2004)
  14. Buse, A., "Goodness of Fit in Generalized Least Squares Estimation", American Statistician, 27, pp.106~108 (1973)
  15. Theil, H., "Economic Forecasts and Policy", pp.435~437 (1961), North-Holland

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (15건)