초기 주택가격 형성이 가격 주기 지속기간에 미치는 영향 분석
How Initial Housing Prices Affect on the Housing Cycle Duration
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The purpose of this study is to figure out the effect of the initial housing prices on the housingprice cycle duration. This study explores whether duration dependence on the housing price cycleis sensitive to the initial price. We used Cox proportional hazard model and tested thegoodness-of-fit of the model with link test. Analysis results show that the evidence of duration dependence is sensitive to the initial priceboth in upturn and downturn period. In particular, we find that the bigger the initial price variationis, the longer the housing price cycle lasts. In consideration of the analysis results, we can inferthat the initial housing price could stimulate the investors' expectations and also make housingprice cycle stay longer.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to figure out the effect of the initial housing prices on the housingprice cycle duration. This study explores whether duration dependence on the housing price cycleis sensitive to the initial price. We used Cox proportional hazard model and tested thegoodness-of-fit of the model with link test. Analysis results show that the evidence of duration dependence is sensitive to the initial priceboth in upturn and downturn period. In particular, we find that the bigger the initial price variationis, the longer the housing price cycle lasts. In consideration of the analysis results, we can inferthat the initial housing price could stimulate the investors' expectations and also make housingprice cycle stay longer.
참고문헌 (22)
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