광역시 주택가격 변화의 특징과 요인 분석
An Empirical Analysis of Housing Price Pattern and Causes in the Korean Metropolitan Cities
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This article explores the pattern of house price movements in Korean metropolitan cities during the period of mid 1980s to 2000s. The pattern is characterized by big discrepancy in increasing rates of house prices across big cities in 1980s, falling house prices at similar rates in 1990s, and heterogeneous changing rates of house prices with some cities experiencing soaring price while other cities experiencing falling price in 2000s. Regression analysis using panel data shows that real GRDP has the strongest impact on house price in respective cities, along with real GDP and real interest rates. Net inflow of population is estimated to have a positive impact whereas dishonored bill ratio has a negative impact. The result also indicates that region specific factors outweigh nation-wide macro factors in determining the regional house prices, and that trend becomes even stronger over time. This offers an explanation on the pattern of house price movements in metropolitan cities. Moreover, our study suggests that we need to introduce a region-specific housing policy.
Abstract
This article explores the pattern of house price movements in Korean metropolitan cities during the period of mid 1980s to 2000s. The pattern is characterized by big discrepancy in increasing rates of house prices across big cities in 1980s, falling house prices at similar rates in 1990s, and heterogeneous changing rates of house prices with some cities experiencing soaring price while other cities experiencing falling price in 2000s. Regression analysis using panel data shows that real GRDP has the strongest impact on house price in respective cities, along with real GDP and real interest rates. Net inflow of population is estimated to have a positive impact whereas dishonored bill ratio has a negative impact. The result also indicates that region specific factors outweigh nation-wide macro factors in determining the regional house prices, and that trend becomes even stronger over time. This offers an explanation on the pattern of house price movements in metropolitan cities. Moreover, our study suggests that we need to introduce a region-specific housing policy.
참고문헌 (14)
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