지역주택시장의 동태적 가격 특성 분석에 관한 연구

Abstract

Although housing prices is one of the key variables in explaining housing cycles, prior researches focused on national housing prices. Macro based researches roots on shortages of housing market statistics and efficiency oriented government policy. The need to study regional or civic housing markets are like these. First, real estate market is naturally a local market so fluctuation of housing prices are not same those of national housing market. Second, local fundamentals tend to have greater cyclical impacts than those of national or regional fundamentals. In this study, prior studies and fundamental housing price theory was adopted to explaining housing price dynamics of each cities. According to housing price theory, it follows recent price housing price(serial correlation) and convert to its fundament housing prices(mean reversion) so housing dynamics of each cities can be explained to these theoretical concepts. This study base on these theoretical background and used empirical models of prior studies. Empirical results like these. First, There was not a patten about market value and fundamental value of each city because economic condition of each city was not same. Second, most of regional housing prices tend to have no oscillations and distribution of convergent market was about 50% percent of total market. This study has limitation in explaining housing price dynamics because time series data on regional housing market was not enough to find out empirical behavior. For example data on housing prices is not a real transaction based data but a market value of housing information company. However, this study can be a one of the first studies in this field and can be reference data understanding regional housing dynamics.