현금흐름 분석을 통한 모기지 분포변화 연구
Modelling the distribution of mortgage debt (Bogeumjari loan) using inflow and outflow data
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초록
본 연구는 보금자리론 현금흐름 데이터를 기초로 모기지풀의 동태적 특성을 분석하고, 경제 및 규제환경에 따른 분포변화를 분석해 보았다. 우선 보금자리론 잔액은 대부분 유입(inflows)에 의해 결정되며, 지역 주택가격 변화와 높은 관련성을 보였다. 또한 보금자리론 차주는 월평균 70만 원 내외의 원리금 상환액을 장기간 유지했으나 2022년 이후 상환부담이 빠르게 증가했고, 이자 상환 비중이 더 빠르게 증가하는 특징을 보였다. 다음으로 LTV(loan-to-value)는 규제가 적용되는 60%, 70%에 집중된 형태를 보였으며, 이는 대출실행 시점의 LTV규제가 대출액을 결정하는 핵심적인 규제변수임을 시사한다. 한편 시뮬레이션 분석을 통해 예측된 CLTV(current LTV) 분포는 기존 분포 대비 중심이 좌측으로 이동하며 넓게 퍼진 형태를 보였으며, 모기지 상환보다는 담보주택의 가격변화가 더 큰 영향을 미쳤다. 마지막으로 고CLTV 차주는 대출액, 체증식 상환 비중이 타 그룹 대비 뚜렷하게 높았고, 부채상환 속도가 더딘 특징이 있었다. 즉 가계부채의 안정적 디레버리징을 위해서는 고CLTV 차주의 점진적인 원금상환에 집중할 필요가 있고, 조기상환(수수료 면제)과 대환 유도 등의 관리방안이 필요하다.
Abstract
This study analyzed the dynamic characteristics of household debt through an analysis of cash flow data for Bogeumjari loans. The overall loan balance was found to be largely influenced by mortgage inflows, whereas mortgage outflows remained relatively stable. Mortgage inflows, in particular, were strongly correlated with regional housing price fluctuations, with regions exhibiting more significant price fluctuations where inflow volatility was higher. A vintage analysis revealed that Bogeumjari loan borrowers maintained an average monthly repayment of around KRW 700,000 over an extended period. However, the repayment burden has risen rapidly following the rise in housing prices in 2022. A noticeable trend was observed in the increasing proportion of interest payments relative to principal payments, with interest repayments exceeding principal repayments from 2021 onward. Next, using a mortgage inflow and outflow projection model, this study predicted shifts in the distribution of the Bogeumjari mortgage pool. At the time of loan origination, loan-to-value (LTV) ratios were concentrated around regulatory thresholds (e.g., 60% and 70%), underscoring the role of LTV regulation in determining loan size. By contrast, the projected current loan-to-value (CLTV) distribution based on simulations showed a leftward shift in the central distribution, with a wider spread than the original distribution. This implies that changes in collateral housing prices have a greater impact than borrowers’ repayment behaviors. Lastly, an analysis of the distribution characteristics by CLTV levels revealed that high-CLTV borrowers held significantly larger loan amounts and exhibited slower debt repayment rates. This indicates that for effective household debt management and deleveraging, focusing on gradual principal repayment by high-CLTV borrowers is necessary. Moreover, incentivizing early repayment through fee waivers and fostering mortgage refinancing in low-interest-rate environments is crucial for stable management of household debt.
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