불법담배유통량의 가격탄력성 추정연구

Abstract

South Korean government raised the price of cigarette from 2,500KRW to 4,500KRW per unit in November 2014 in order to discourage cigarette consumption. This resulted in significant negative impact on cigarette market in South Korea by increased volume of cigarette marketing in black market. Distribution of cigarette in black market has a long history with government’s surveillance. In order to completely eliminate illegan marketing of cigarette in black market, it is necessary to establish a traceability system, and recently coding technology enables inspection, verification, monitoring, inventory management and product tracking of cigarette in more diverse ways. This allows authorities in South Korea to be able to control illegal marketing of cigarettes more effectivley. increased price of cigarette in Korea is expected to result in increased illegal marketing of cigarette, thus establishment of traceability is becoming an imperative in Korea. Nonethless, this will raise the cost of regulation significantly, and feasibility of such system is yet to be determined. Previous studies have reported effects of increased cigarette price, nonetheless few studies focused on the direct relationship between cigarette price and volume of cigarette sales in black market. The purpose of this study is to assess the effect of increased cigarette price on change of cigarette sales volume in black market. Finding show that 10 percent increase in cigarette price led to 6.25 percent increase in sales volume of cigarette in black market. In addition, if a cigarette product has a bar code label, less volume is marketed through black market compared to a product which has no bar code label. Overall, products from a country with a bar code label have 59.2 percent lower sales volume in black market. Thus, implementation of traceability system may be an effective strategy in managing cigarette marketing in South Korea. This study also reports on feasibility of traceability system on cigarette marketing in South Korea. In summary, this study first examines the current situation of cigarette marketing in black market, and examines the relationship between cigarette prices and volume of illicit cigarettes distributed in black market. this will be followed by forecast change in the volume of illicit cigarette sales in black market when the official cigarette price increases.