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글로벌 금융위기와 과소소비론: 실증적 비판

An Empirical Refutation of the Underconsumptionist Account of the Global Financial Crisis

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사회과학연구원 (Research Institute of Social Science)|2012.05|마르크스주의 연구 (MARXISM 21)|제9권 제2호|pp. 137-171|DOI 10.26587/marx.9.2.201205.006

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금융위기Financial Crisis가계부채Household Debt소득분배자본축적Income Distribution개량주의Capital AccumulationUnderconsumptionist과소소비론Reformism.
주제분류사회과학일반

초록

최근 글로벌 금융위기의 요인에 대한 설득력 있는 분석으로 수용되고 있는 과소소비론적 위기론들은 20세기 후반 이래의 소득분배 악화 및 불평등 심화, 그로 인한총수요 감소가 금융위기의 이면에 놓인 핵심 요인이라고 주장한다. 이 연구는 이들의 주장을 세 가지 명제로 정리하고 각 명제들을 미국의 통계자료들을 이용하여검증한다. 그 결과 소득분배가 악화되었다는 사실 외에는 분배 악화가 자본축적 부진과 가계부채 증가의 원인이었다는 이들의 핵심적인 명제들이 충분한 경험적 근거들을 갖추고 있지 못함을 밝힌다. 결국 과소소비론적 위기론은 금융위기에 대한 올바른 분석이라 할 수 없으며 정치적으로는 분배의 개선에 매몰된 개량주의로 귀결된다.

Abstract

Since the onset of the global financial crisis underconsumptionist theories have gained much attention as a suitable account of the factors which caused the current crisis. From the underconsumptionists’ view, the underlying fundamental causes of the crisis are the deterioration of the income distribution from the late 20th century onwards and hence the decline of the aggregate demand. This paper sums up the underconsumptionist account in three theorems and evaluates its appropriateness using the U.S. statistical data. The findings show, with the exception of the first theorem saying that labor’s share has declined and the income inequalities have risen, that the other two critical theorems arguing that it is the deterioration of the income distribution which lowered the capital accumulation and caused the household debt to increase, are empirically ill-grounded. Overall, the underconsumptionist account is not a scientific explanation of the crisis and as a result, it only contributes to the political reformism.

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