북한의 핵보유가 동북아시아 지역안보에 미치는 영향: 핵보유국의 분쟁 가능성에 대한 정량적 분석, 1900-2000
N. Korea’s Nuclear Weapon and Regional Security in Northeast Asia: Quantitative Analysis about Nuclear State and Conflict, 1900-2000
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초록
이 논문은 북한의 핵보유가 동북아시아지역 안보에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 탐구한다. 최적의 해답을 얻기 위해 핵보유국의 분쟁가능성에 대한 가설이 구축되어 정량적으로 검증되었다. 통계분석 결과, 핵보유국은 핵보유국에 대해 분쟁가능성을 증가시키지만 그 관계는 약하다. 그러나 핵보유국은 핵비보유국에 대해 분쟁가능성을 증가시키며 통계적으로 매우 유의미하다. 이러한 발견을 북한에 적용하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 북한의 핵보유는 한국을 비롯한 동북아지역의 안보불안을 야기할 가능성이 매우 높다. 둘째, 북한의 핵보유는 동북아에서 중국의 지위를 급격히 상승시키며 이는 동북아 안보불안을 증가시켜, 궁극적으로 한국(일본)의 대미의존을 고착화시킬 것이다. 마지막으로, 미국, 중국, 북한은 분쟁의 예방과 억지를 통해 동북아지역 내 정치 군사적 질서를 형성해 나갈 것이다.
Abstract
This paper aims to explore what impacts of N. Korea’s possession of nuclear weapon have on the regional security in Northeast Asia. To get the best answer, I first constructed and tested hypotheses about the potential conflict of nuclear states. The findings of the statistical analysis is applied to the N. Korea case. The results of the logit regression analysis show that conflicts between nuclear states are more likely, but the relationship is weak. The dyad of nuclear to non-nuclear states is statistically significant in increasing the likelihood of disputes. Accordingly, this research predicts that N. Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons is more likely to cause security concerns in the region, particularly S. Korea. Second, it will sharply raise the status of China, which will bring up the anxiety of the regional security. In return, it will make S. Korea(Japan) heavily resort to the U.S. Finally, through the dispute prevention and deterrence, the U.S, China, and N. Korea will lead to shape the political and military order. S. Korea is urged to construct the peace system in Korean peninsula rather than recklessly plunging into the exhausting arms race.
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