CMIP5 모델자료를 이용한 미래 먼지에어러솔 배출 전망과 나지 비율 및 토양 수분과의 관계 분석
Analysis of the Future Emission Changes in Mineral Dust Aerosol in CMIP5 Related to Bare Soil and Soil Moisture Conditions.
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초록
Future changes in mineral dust emission are studied using CMIP5 models. These models simulate climatological spatial distribution of dust emission over the observed major sources; Sahara Desert to Arabia and Southwest Asia. Model estimates for the range of global dust emission simulation appear large in the quantity of dust produced and the amplitude of interannual variability. According to the ensemble mean in global annual emissions, projections of four RCPs do not have significant long-term trends in mineral dust aerosol emissions at the end of 21st century. Meanwhile over Northeast Asia, annual emissions are projected to decrease significantly in four RCPs. Reductions appear over the major sources of mineral dust. Seasonally emission reduction in spring is distinct. In April and May, future changes with decreasing emission appear only in RCP4.5 with significance. Aerosol emission amount changes are related to changes in land surface property. We analyze future projection of soil moisture and bare soil area fraction. Regarding the projected decreasing trend in the annual emission amount over Northeast Asia, soil moisture is expected to increase in the emission source region in four RCPs. Relatively, the effect of bare soil area changes over the emission source appears in some models and RCPs.
Abstract
Future changes in mineral dust emission are studied using CMIP5 models. These models simulate climatological spatial distribution of dust emission over the observed major sources; Sahara Desert to Arabia and Southwest Asia. Model estimates for the range of global dust emission simulation appear large in the quantity of dust produced and the amplitude of interannual variability. According to the ensemble mean in global annual emissions, projections of four RCPs do not have significant long-term trends in mineral dust aerosol emissions at the end of 21st century. Meanwhile over Northeast Asia, annual emissions are projected to decrease significantly in four RCPs. Reductions appear over the major sources of mineral dust. Seasonally emission reduction in spring is distinct. In April and May, future changes with decreasing emission appear only in RCP4.5 with significance. Aerosol emission amount changes are related to changes in land surface property. We analyze future projection of soil moisture and bare soil area fraction. Regarding the projected decreasing trend in the annual emission amount over Northeast Asia, soil moisture is expected to increase in the emission source region in four RCPs. Relatively, the effect of bare soil area changes over the emission source appears in some models and RCPs.
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