한국의 미래 냉방도일과 난방도일 변화 전망
Future Projection of Changes in Cooling and Heating Degree Days in Korea
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초록
The geographical distributions of CDDs and HDDs in South Korea for the period 2000~2009with 2050~2059 are studied by using daily mean temperature data with 1 km horizontal resolutionestimated by MK (Modified Korean)-PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions an Independent SlopesModel) driven by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) RCP (RepresentativeConcentration Pathways)2.6/8.5. The HDD amounts in winter season decrease, declining from northto south and from the high mountain area to the coastal area. In summer season, the higher fuelconsumption appears in urban areas, with much higher CDD amounts and for a longer period of time. Inthe mid-century under RCP2.6 (RCP8.5), HDDs are projected to decrease by 13% (16%) while CDDsare likely to increase by 36% (51%). The total length of cooling (heating) period in Korea is projected toincrease (decrease) due to the advance (delay) of the beginning date and the delay (advance) of the enddate. These results suggest that special attention should be paid to space cooling, since the cooling demandis expected to grow rapidly in most regions except for mountainous areas. The projection of future CDDsand HDDs will be useful for various energy projects and other environmental applications.
Abstract
The geographical distributions of CDDs and HDDs in South Korea for the period 2000~2009with 2050~2059 are studied by using daily mean temperature data with 1 km horizontal resolutionestimated by MK (Modified Korean)-PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions an Independent SlopesModel) driven by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) RCP (RepresentativeConcentration Pathways)2.6/8.5. The HDD amounts in winter season decrease, declining from northto south and from the high mountain area to the coastal area. In summer season, the higher fuelconsumption appears in urban areas, with much higher CDD amounts and for a longer period of time. Inthe mid-century under RCP2.6 (RCP8.5), HDDs are projected to decrease by 13% (16%) while CDDsare likely to increase by 36% (51%). The total length of cooling (heating) period in Korea is projected toincrease (decrease) due to the advance (delay) of the beginning date and the delay (advance) of the enddate. These results suggest that special attention should be paid to space cooling, since the cooling demandis expected to grow rapidly in most regions except for mountainous areas. The projection of future CDDsand HDDs will be useful for various energy projects and other environmental applications.
참고문헌 (14)
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