이민자의 연령 및 성비 구조와 미래 인구변동
Immigrants’ Age-Sex Structure and Future Demographic Change
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인구 감소를 둘러싼 우려가 커짐에 따라 선진국을 중심으로 이민의 역할이 주목받고 있다. 이민의 역할이 커지는 상황에서 이 연구는 정지인구 모형과 인구 시뮬레이션을 활용하여 이민자 유입의 인구학적 영향, 특히 이민자의 연령과 성비 구조가 인구의 규모와 연령 구조에 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 이민의 인구학적 영향에 관한 연구가 이민자 유입 규모의 효과에 초점을 맞추는 경향이 있지만, 이 연구의 분석 결과는 이민자의 연령과 성비 구조도 미래 인구변동에 유의미한 영향을 미칠 수 있는 요인임을 시사한다. 분석 결과는 이민자의 연령 구성이 인구의 규모뿐만 아니라 구조(고령화)에도 상당한 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 보여 준다. 한편 분석 결과는 이민자의성비 구조도 인구 규모에 상당한 영향을 미칠 수 있지만, 출생과 사망에 미치는 상반된 효과로 인해 인구의 연령 구조에 미치는 효과는 제한적일 것임을 시사한다.
Abstract
Immigration has attracted substantial attention as a solution to cope with population decline caused by sustained low fertility in the industrialized countries. Using stationary population models and demographic simulations, this study examines the effects of immigrants’ age and sex distribution as a determinant of the size and age structure of a population. This study indicates that immigrants’ age and sex composition can play significant roles in changes in population size and age structure, even though previous research has mainly focused on the volume of immigration. The results show that immigrants’ ages can produce sizable changes in age structure as well as population size. Immigrants’ sex composition can also produce sizable changes in population size, but the effect of immigrants’ sex-ratio on population age composition is limited due to the offsetting effects on births and deaths.
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