북극 변화의 초국경적 파급효과와 한국의 전략: 유럽 사례를 중심으로

Abstract

This study investigates, in a multi-dimensional manner, the transnational spillover effects of Arctic environmental change across Europe and, on that basis, derives strategic options for the Republic of Korea. Employing an integrated analytical framework that links climate science, industrial economics, institutions and governance, and discourse analysis, the study identifies recursive causal dynamics. The findings indicate that the Arctic is no longer a peripheral space but functions as a global frontier where the climate crisis intersects with transformations in the international political–economic order. The European cases show a complex configuration wherein Arctic change drives the reconfiguration of trade networks and port competition, deepening imbalances in energy dependence and industrial structure, the accumulation of climate disasters and the widening of socioeconomic inequalities, and policy–discursive conflict and the securitization of climate issues. Implications for Korea are threefold. First, the climate crisis should be mainstreamed into the national security paradigm, establishing a comprehensive security architecture that spans diplomacy, industry, and disaster governance. Second, while converting the Northern Sea Route and shipbuilding/energy strategies into opportunities, structural risks—pertaining to supply chains, insurance, and environmental regulation—must be managed in parallel. Third, Korea should respond proactively to the European Union’s normative leadership while adopting a balanced diplomatic approach to the power configuration among the United States, China, and Russia. In addition, by leveraging climate-technology diplomacy and a compound security strategy, Korea can extend Arctic discourse into a platform for global leadership. In sum, Arctic change presents Korea with a duality of threat and opportunity, which should be recast as a core agenda for national survival strategy and the elevation of its international standing.