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이윤주도성장에 대한 재고찰: 생산능력을 창출하지 않는 독립지출을 중심으로

Reconsideration on Profit-Led Growth with Non-Capacity Creating Autonomous Demand

연제호
한국사회경제학회 (Korean Association for Political Economy)|2021.02|사회경제평론 (The Review of Social & Economic Studies)|제34권 제1호|pp. 87-125|DOI 10.17964/rses.2021.34.1.87

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참고문헌

키워드

이윤주도성장생산능력을 창출하지 않는 독립지출포스트 칼레츠키안 성장모형Post􀀐Kaleckian Growth ModelNon􀀐Capacity Creating Autonomous DemandProfit􀀐led Growth
주제분류경제학

초록

본 논문은 포스트 칼레츠키안 성장 모형에 스라피안 초승수 접근법의 요소들을 도입했을 때 어떠한 결론의 수정이 나타나는지를 고찰한다. 기존 모형에서는 이윤몫이 투자에 미치는 효과가 크다면 이윤주도수요 및 성장이발생하게 된다. 하지만 증가율이 외생적으로 주어진 생산능력을 창출하지않는 독립지출(NCCAD)과 해로드적 투자 조정이 존재할 경우 이러한 결론은 더 이상 성립하지 않는다. 이윤몫이 증가할 때, 단기적으로는 성장률이증가할 수 있지만 이는 NCCAD의 증가율이 주어졌기 때문에 유지될 수가없다. 정상가동률을 회복하려는 기업의 투자 조정이 결국 독립투자를 감소시켜서 장기적으로는 자본 및 산출 수준의 상대적 감소가 발생한다. 이는 장기유효수요 이론의 관점에서 단기적으로는 이윤주도성장이 나타나더라도 장기적으로는 수준효과의 측면에서 임금주도성장이 발생함을 의미한다

Abstract

This paper considers the post􀀐Kaleckian growth model in with of Sraffian supermultiplier approach. In this model, investment is affected by the normal profit rate, that is, the profit share. So, an increase in profit share directly leads to a decrease in consumption and a increase in investment. If the latter is bigger, profit􀀐led demand and profit􀀐led demand growth may occur. However, the conclusion changes significantly when introducing NCCAD with exogenous growth rate and Harrodian investment adjustment. In the long run, wage􀀐led growth necessarily occurs in terms of level effect. Under profit􀀐led growth regime in the short run, an increase in profit share increases the growth rate. However, this growth rate cannot be sustained because the growth rate of NCCAD does not change. And as the autonomous investment ratio decreases with the Harrodian investment adjustment, the growth rate on the overall adjustment process falls short of the growth rate of NCCAD on average. That is, an increase in profit share results in a relative decrease in the levels of capital and output. In the long run, wage􀀐led growth strategies are always valid, given NCCAD’s steady growth and Harrodian investment adjustment.

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