미중관계의 구조적 이해: 투키디데스 함정과 리프만 불균형 개념을 중심으로
Structural Dimensions of the Sino-US Relationship: The Thucydides Trap and the Lippmann Gap
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이 논문은 강대국 사이의 갈등관계에서 드러나는 구조적 특징을 가리키는 ‘투키디데스 함정’의 개념을 논의하고, 이것이 오늘날의 미중관계 및 지난 20세기의 경험과 관련하여 어떤 의미를 갖는지를 살펴보고자 한다. 특히 국제정치의 구조와 관련하여 크로 메모랜덤과 조지 케난의 장전문으로 인한 영국-독일 및 미국-소련의 갈등 사례가 어떻게 구조적 위험으로 해석될 수 있는가를 짚어본다. 또한 이 논문은 구조적 위험에 대처하기 위한 미국의 국내 담론, 특히 ‘리프만 불균형’의 개념을 중심으로 한 외교정책론과 정치인들의 경세치국술에 관한 논의를 전개한다. 국가의 능력과 대외적 개입 사이에 존재하는 간극에 관련된 여러 주장들도 살펴본 후에 이 논문은 강대국 관계의 구조적 위험을 극복하기 위한 유능한 정치지도자의 경세치국술이 중요하다는 점을 강조한다.
Abstract
This paper discusses the concept of Thucydides Trap which signifies structural features of conflict between strong powers, and investigates its implications both in the contemporary Sino-American relations and the past experiences of the 20th century. In particular, it introduces the cases of the Crowe Memorandum for the British-German relations and the Long Telegram of George F. Kennan for the U. S.-Soviet relations as the structural risks in international relations. The paper also reviews the U. S. domestic discussion on the Lippmann Gap between state capability and foreign interventions. The final conclusion focuses on the role of effective statecraft by political leaders of strong states in overcoming structural problems in their foreign policies.
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