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미국의 대중국 균형전략 분석

An Analysis of the U.S. Military Balancing against China

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국가안보전략연구원 (Institute for National Security Strategy)|2020.06|국가안보와 전략 (National Security and Strategy)|제20권 제2호|pp. 1-52|DOI 10.23111/nsas.2020.20.2.001

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참고문헌

키워드

현실주의Realism인도-태평양Indo-Pacific Strategy미중경쟁세력균형Balance of PowerBalancingUS-China Competition균형전략
주제분류정치외교학

초록

본 논문은 세력균형에 대한 방법론적 보완을 통해, 미국이 새로운 지역패권국의 등장을 저지하기 위해 균형행위를 펼치고 있음을 보여준다. 보편적 수용성에도 불구하고 세력균형은 개념적으로 빈약했다. 특히 균형행위에 대한 미흡한 개념적 정의는 경제적 상호의존성에 대한 주목과 더해져, 미국이 중국을 상대로 전통적인 균형전략을 펼칠 의도가 없거나 혹은 있더라도 현 단계에서는 그 과업을 주변국에게 전가하는 이른바 역외균형자의역할에 머물러 있다는 현실인식에 기여하고 있다. 이러한 분석은 일부 현실주의자들의 이론은 물론, 미국이 공개적으로 중국을 역내 패권을 노리는현상타파국가로 규정하고 있는 현실과도 상충한다. 이에 본 논문은 균형의개념이 단순한 내적, 외적 구분에 더해 군사력 개발과 사용의 측면을 포함해야 한다는 최근의 논의에 주목하고, 이를 비판적으로 수용하여 미국의균형행위를 포착할 수 있는 새로운 분석틀을 제시한다. 이를 바탕으로 미국이 (1) 군사력의 전진 및 분산 배치, (2) 새로운 대중국 군사전략개념 구체화, (3) 비스마르크식 중첩 군사협력 네트워크 형성이라는 3가지 축을 중심으로 대중국 균형전략을 펼치고 있음을 강조한다.

Abstract

This study attempts to demonstrate that the U.S. has resorted to balancing strategy, driven by the rise of China as a potential regional hegemon. Despite its general acceptance, the concept of balancing lacked clarity in its definition and methodology. Coupled with renewed focus on economic interdependence, the narrowly defined concept contributed to the wide-spread understanding that the U.S. does not harbor any intention to balance China and is content with its traditional role as an off-shore balancer, while transferring major security burdens to its allies and partners. Such understanding is at odds not only with realist theory but with the reality in which the U.S. officially defines China as a revisionist power seeking to displace the U.S. as the dominant regional power. This study presents a modified analytical framework with explicitly delineated sets of military activities to measure America’s balancing behavior. This study finds that the U.S. has embarked on the strategy of balancing with three major components: (1) the forward and scattered deployment of troops and equipment, (2) military operational concept specifically designed to address China’s military buildup, (3) the Bismarckian system of multilateral military cooperation.

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