투키디데스 트랩: 갈등과 협력의 가능성
Thucydides Trap: Possibility of Conflict and Cooperation
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
우크라이나 전쟁을 통해 미국과 중국의 갈등이 새롭게 부각되고 있다. G-2로 비견되는 두 주요 국가의 갈등 혹은 협력은 앞으로의 세계질서에 중요한 영향을 미칠 것이나 현재같은 갈등의 심화는 충돌로 이어질 수 있기 때문이다. 트럼프 이후 바이든은 지속적으로 중국에 대해 공세적 정책을 취하고 있으며 중국 역시 수세적 입장이나 협력보다는 대립의 자세를 취하고 있다. 양국의 갈등이 방치된다면 투키디데스의 트랩에 빠질 가능성이 있다는 것이다. 우리의 입장에서 미중관계는 한반도에 적지 않은 영향을 미칠 것이므로 갈등을 방지하고 협력의 가능성을 모색하는 것은 매우 중요하다. 지금까지 미중 갈등에 대한 연구는 갈등의 심화를 막고 평화를 모색하는 소극적인 입장에 머무르고 있다. 한반도 문제가 국제적이고 무엇보다도 미중관계와 밀접하므로 북핵 등 현안 해결에는 미국과 중국이 같이 화합하고 협력할 가능성에 대한 연구가 보다 중요하다고 할 수 있다. 본고는 안보 딜레마와 죄수 딜레마 게임을 중심으로 미국과 중국이 투키디데스 트랩을 극복하고 협력할 수 있는 가능성을 모색하려는 것이다.
Abstract
The conflict between the US and China is emerging in the wake of the war in Ukraine. Conflict or cooperation between the two major countries, comparable to the G-2, will have a significant impact on the future world order, but the current deepening conflict can lead to conflict. After Trump, Biden continues to take an offensive policy against China, and China is also taking a confrontational stance rather than a defensive stance or cooperation. If the conflict between the two countries is neglected, there is a possibility of falling into the trap of Thucydides. From our point of view, the US-China relationship will have a considerable impact on the Korean Peninsula, so it is very important to prevent conflict and explore the possibility of cooperation. So far, studies on the US-China conflict have remained in a passive position to prevent the deepening of the conflict and seek peace. Since the Korean Peninsula issue is international and, above all, closely related to the US-China relationship, it can be said that research on the possibility of harmony and cooperation between the US and China is more important in resolving pending issues such as the North Korean nuclear issue. This paper aims to explore the possibility of cooperation between the US and China overcoming the Thucydides trap, focusing on the Security Dilemma and Prisoner's Dilemma games.
참고문헌 (31)
- "Thucydides’ Trap Has Been Sprung in the Pacific" (2012)[URL]
- Allison, G, "The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?", The Atlantic (2015)
- Allison, G., "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?" (2017), Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
- Allison, G., "The Struggle for Power: U.S.-China Relations in the 21st Century" (2020)
- Ameyaw-Brobbey, T, "The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Regime Fragility” Explaining China’s International Efforts at Solving Domestic Insecurity", International Journal of Politics and Security(IJPS)2(4), pp.1~29 (2020)
- Ashford, E, "It’s Official: The Post-Cold War Era Is Over", The New York Times, ~ (2022)
- Ashworth, T., "Trench Warfare 1914-18: The Live And Let Live System" (1914), Macmillan Publishers Ltd
- Axelrod, R., "SThe Evolution of Cooperation" (1984), Basic Books
- Bagby, L. M. J., "The Use and Abuse of Thucydides in International Relations", International Organization, 48(1), pp.131~153 (1994)
- Bitounis L., "The Struggle for Power: U.S.-China Relations in the 21st Century" (2020), The Aspen Institute
- Costa, Hugo Bras Martins da, "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?", Brazilian Political Science Rview, 12(3) (2018)
- Doyle, M. W, "Foreign Policy: Theories, Actors, Cases" (2016), Oxford University Press
- Flockhart, T., "Foreign Policy: Theories, Actors, Cases" (2016), Oxford University Press
- Gustafson, L., "The Real Thucydides Trap", HUMANITAS, ⅩⅩⅪ, Nos. 1 and 2, 5~34 (2018)
- Hanania, R, "Graham Allison and the Thucydides Trap Myth", Strategic Studies Quarterly, (Winter), pp.13~21 (2021)
- Heinlein, R. A., "Starship Troopers" (1987), Ace Books
- Ikenberry, G. J, "The Rise of China and the Future of the West : Can the Liberal System Survive", Foreign Affairs, 87(1), pp.23~37 (2008)
- "The Thucydides’ Trap: a Distorted Compass" (2017)[URL]
- Lider, J., "Military Theory" (1983), Gower
- Mingst, K. A., "Essentials of International Relations" (2019), Norton & Company, Inc
- Nye, J. S., "Understanding Global Conflict and Cooperation: an Introduction to Theory and History" (2013), Pearson
- Pearson, M. M, "The New China Shock: How Beijing’s Party-State Capitalism Is Changing the Global Economy", Foreign Affairs (2022)
- Peters, M. A., "US-China Rivalry and Thucydides’ Trap’ : Why this is a misleading account", Educational Philosophy and Theory, 54(10), pp.1501~1512 (2022)
- Beyond Iraq: Challenges to the Transatlantic Security Community. German-American Dialogue Working Paper Series, "Risse, T", American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, ~ (2003)
- "Needless anxiety over China will only make it true"[URL]
- Schweller, R. L., "After Unipolarity : China’s Visions of International Order in an Era of U. S. Decline", International Security, 36(1), pp.41~72 (2011)
- Shengli, L., "Why Are China and the U.S. Not Destined to Fall into the “Thucydides’ Trap”?”", China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 4(4), pp.495~514 (2018)
- Smith, S., "Foreign Policy: Theories, Actors, Cases" (2016), Oxford University Press
- Snow, D. M., "Cases in International Relations: Principles and Applications" (2020), The University of Alabama
- "Thucydides Trap: A lessson in strategey an chance from ancient Greece" (2022)[URL]
- Wohlforth, W. C., "Foreign Policy: Theories, Actors, Cases" (2016), Oxford University Press