동아시아 국가 외환보유수요의 구조변화 - ASEAN+3개국을 중심으로 -
The Changes in the Demand of East Asian Countries for Foreign Exchange Reserves
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아시아 13개국의 외환 보유액 수요를 1990년~2006년간의 패널자료를 사용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 동아시아 국가에서 수입규모는 외환보유액 결정에 매우 중요한 변수로 나타났고, 또한 동아시아 각국의 외환보유액 수요는 1998년 외환위기를 중심으로 크게 변화한 것으로 나타났다. 즉 위기 이전, 각국의 외환보유액 결정의 가장 중요한 변수로 수입규모나 수입성향 혹은 수출의 변동성 등 실물변수였으나 위기 이후에는 전체 국제수지 규모나 이의 변동성 등으로 자본거래의 중요성이 크게 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 한국, 중국 등 아시아 국가의 외환보유액 수요는 위기 발생 이후 수년이 지난 후부터 본격적으로 변화한 것으로 제시되었다.
Abstract
We attempt to identify the determinants of foreign exchange reserves of 13 Asian countries including Korea, Japan, China and 10 ASEAN countries. The foreign exchange reserves of these countries increased rapidly from 1990 to 2006. We find that the value of imports is a very important variable for the central banks of these countries to determine the foreign exchange reserves for the relevant years. We also find that the demand for foreign exchange reserves has changed significantly after the financial crisis of 1997 and 1998. While the value of imports and the ratio of imports to GDP are the key variables explaining the movement of foreign exchange reserves before the crisis, the volatility of the exchange rate reserve or value of capital movement explains movements in reserves after the crisis. Finally, it seems that it took several years after the crisis for the central banks of these countries to change their demand for foreign exchange reserves.
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