The Rationale behind International Reserves Hoarding in Asia
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초록
본 논문에서는 중상주의적 동기가 동아시아에서 외환보유액이 누적된 중요한 요인으로 작용했는지를 분석하였다. 외환보유액에 관한 전통적인 수요 식(demand equation)을 수정함과 아울러 샘플기간을 갱신함으로써 추정한 바에 따르면, 수출증가가 아시아에서의 막대한 외환보유액 누적과 유의적으로 연관성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 실증결과는, 환율의 변동성도 외환보유액 누적에 유의적으로 작용했다는 결과와 더불어, 아시아 국가들이 97-98년 외환위기 이후 상대적으로 변동적인 환율제도하에서 자국의 수출품을 값싸게 유도하면서 중상주의적 목적을 추구해왔으며 결과적으로 외환보유액이 증대되었다는 가설을 뒷받침하는 결과이다. 그러나 본 논문의 결과는 아시아 국가들이 급작스런 자본유출가능성에 대비한 완충장치로써 외환보유액을 증대시켰다고 주장하는 예방적 견해(the precautionary views)에 대해 대체적(substitute)이라기 보다는 보완적(complement) 결과로 해석될 필요가 있다.
Abstract
This paper investigates whether mercantilist motive is an important determinant of the international reserves accumulation in East Asia. By modifying the conventional reserve demand equation as well as updating sample periods, I find that the export growth has significantly associated with the large hoarding of international reserves in Asia. Combined with the significant role of the exchange rates volatility on the reserves accumulation, this provides evidence that support the hypothesis that Asian countries have kept their exports cheap and hold on to mercantilist objectives, building up reserves under relatively more flexible FX regimes after the 1997-1998 crises. However, the analysis needs to be interpreted as a complement not a substitute to the precautionary views that Asian countries have built the buffers against rapid financial outflows.
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