외환보유액이 단기외채 유입에 미치는 영향
The Effect of Foreign Reserves on Short-Term Debt Inflows
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외환보유액이 확대되면 외국자본의 급유출(sudden stop) 가능성이 낮아지므로 민간 경제주체들의 입장에서는 단기차입을 확대할 유인이 있다. 또한 금융기관들이 외환보유액을 위기시 사용가능한 예비적 유동자산으로 인식할 경우에도 도덕해이가 발생하여 단기외채 유입이 늘어날 수 있다. 본고에서는 외환보유액의 확충이 실제로 단기외채 유입을 촉진하였는지 46개 국가의 2000년대 연간자료를 이용하여 실증분석하였다. 패널다중회귀 모형과 패널 VAR모형을 이용한 분석결과 외환보유액이 증가할 경우 단기외채 증가율이 확대되었다. 또한 총외채 대비 단기외채의 비중이 상승하여 외국자본 유입구조의 건전성이 악화되었다. 이처럼 외환보유액 증가가 단기외채 유입을 유발할 경우 위기예방이라는 당초 목적을 달성하기 어려운 반면 유지비용만 증가할 가능성이 있다. 따라서 이러한 부작용을 최소화하기 위하여 거시건전성 정책을 강화할 필요가 있다.
Abstract
By reducing the possibility of a sudden stop of foreign capital inflows, the accumulation of foreign reserves may strengthen private economic agents' incentives for enlarging their short-term debt from overseas. In addition, financial institutions may consider foreign reserves as precautionary liquid assets which can be supplied to the private sector in case of liquidity shortages. This would create their moral hazard and consequently induce further rise of foreign short-term debt. Empirically analyzing the data from 46 developing countries during 2000s through multi-variate regression and panel VAR estimation, this paper finds evidences that foreign reserves actually raise both the increase rate of foreign short-term debt and the ratio of short-term to total foreign debt. Under these circumstances, the accumulation of foreign reserves cannot sufficiently provide self-protection benefits against external shocks but just increase the vulnerability of foreign capital inflow structure. Therefore, we need to reinforce macro-prudential polices to prevent risk-taking behaviors by private economic agents.
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