부산시 16개 구･군 지역별 특성이 5대 범죄(살인, 강도, 성범죄, 절도, 폭력) 발생에 미치는 영향 연구: 퍼지셋 질적비교분석(fsQCA : Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis)을 중심으로
Impact of 16 Gu and Gun of Busan Metropolitan City’s neighborhood characteristics on the occurrence of five major crimes(Murder, Robbery, Sexual Crimes, Theft, Violence) : Using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA)
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본 연구는 지역의 다양한 특성이 범죄 발생에 영향을 미친다는 점을 확인하기 위해 다양한 요인의 복합적인 연관성을 분석하는 퍼지셋 질적비교분석을 활용하였다. 연구결과 4가지 원인조합이 도출되었다. 첫째, 지역 내 1인당 GRDP가 높으면서 CCTV 수가 적고, 이동비율이 많으면서 외국인 비율이 높은 곳일수록 범죄 발생 가능성이 높아졌다. 둘째, 지역 내 1인당 GRDP 가 높으면서 제조업 비율이 낮고, CCTV가 적지만 이동이 많을수록 범죄 발생 가능성이 높아졌다. 셋째, 지역 내에 인구가 많으면서 상업지 면적이 넓고, 이동이 많지만, CCTV가 적을수록범죄 발생 가능성이 높아졌다. 넷째, 지역 내 1인당 GRDP가 높으면서 소득불평등 정도가 심하고, 상업지 면적이 넓고 이동이 많지만 CCTV가 적은 경우 범죄발생 가능성이 높아졌다. 이론적 기여는 통합이론의 적용가능성을 확인하였다는 점이다. 정책적 기여는 지역적 특성에 맞는 치안행정을 전제할 수 있도록 하는 기초자료를 제공하였다는 점이다.
Abstract
The study utilized a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis that analyzes the complex association of various factors to identify the contribution of various characteristics of a neighborhood to the occurrence of crime. The results show four possible combinations of causes. First, the higher the GRDP per capita, the fewer the number of CCTVs, the higher the mobility rate, and the higher the proportion of foreigners in the region, the higher the likelihood of crime. Second, the higher the GRDP per capita, the lower the proportion of manufacturing, and the lower the number of CCTVs but the higher the mobility rate, the higher the likelihood of crime. Third, the more populous the region, the larger the commercial area, the more people moving around, and the fewer CCTVs, the higher the likelihood of crime. Fourth, the likelihood of crime increased when the area had a high GRDP per capita, high income inequality, a large commercial area, a lot of movement, and fewer CCTVs. The theoretical contribution is to confirm the applicability of an integrated theory. The policy contribution is that it provides a basis for the premise of policing administration that fits local characteristics.
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