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포스트 김정일 북한에 대한 전망: 국가급변사태 사례 비교분석을 중심으로

A Prospect of North Korea’s Future During Post-Kim Jong Il Era : A Comparative Case Analysis of Drastic Changes in States

주용식
통일연구원 (YONSEI INSTITUTE FOR NORTH KOREAN STUDIES)|2009.12|통일정책연구 (Unification Policy Studies)|제18권 제2호|pp. 1-32

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참고문헌

키워드

북한통일North KoreaUnificationState Collapse체제붕괴국가붕괴Regime Collapse
주제분류정치외교학

초록

북한 붕괴론은 1990년대 초 공산권 붕괴와 함께 설득력 있게 거론되었으나 북한정권의 오랜 생존력으로 북한연구는 개혁‧개방과 변화에 초점을 두고 진행되어왔다. 최근 김정일의 건강 악화와 후계자 문제로 북한의 급변 사태에 대한 예측과 더불어 붕괴론이 다시 거론되고 있다. 본 논문은 알바니아, 루마니아, 유 고슬라비아, 아이티, 예멘 등 국가붕괴에 대한 사례를 비교 분석하고 찰스 틸리의 국가붕괴 요인인 외적환경의 급변, 경제위기와 급성장, 선도그룹의 출현, 엘리트집단의 구심력 상실과 분열 네 가지 요인이 각각 어떠한 양식으로 국가 또는 체제 붕괴를 가져왔는지 분석한다. 본 논문은 또한 비교분석적 시각에서 네 가지 요인의 북한 적용해본다. 북한의 경우 틸리의 네 가지 요인이 모두 잠재적으로 존재하고 있다. 극심한 경제난으로 암시장이 확산되고, 가족제도가 붕괴되고, 공직자들의 부정부패가 증가하는 등 사회 기강이 무너지고 국가의 사회장악력이 약화되고 있다. 더구나 권력승계이후 북한 엘리트의 통제력은 약화될 것으로 전망된다. 그러나 중국의 지원으로 외적요인의 충격은 비교적 완화될 가능성이 높다. 북한 은 당분간 중국의존적인 버티기 전략으로 체제유지와 경제 개혁의 딜레마를 임시적으로 해결해 나갈 수 있으나 급변사태의 가능성은 상존해 있다.

Abstract

In the early 1990s’ the argument for North Korea’s collapse has been persuasive with the demise of communist regimes. However, as the regime sustained for many years it was discredited. Most studies has been focused upon the opening and reforms of North Korea. Recently, as Kim Jong Il’s health problem and the nation’s leadership succession became a salient issue, arguments for drastic changes in North Korea and its collapse has reemerged. Charles Tilly maintained that historically, four external and internal factors played key roles in case of a state or regime collapse, which are inconsistent external environment, economic crisis or swift growth, mobilization of advance groups and poor reciprocal assimilation of the elite group and its disintegration. This article analyzes state or regime collapse cases in Albania, Romania, Yugoslavia, Haiti, Yemen and examines how the four factors worked in each nation. From a comparative perspective this article also discusses whether the four factors can adequately explain the North Korean case. In North Korea, the Tilly’s four factors are latent. Under severe economic deterioration, black markets are spreading, family bonds are weakened and government officials’ corruption is expanding, which degrade a social morale and enfeeble state’s control over society. Moreover, it is expected that the North Korean elites’ position will be further weakened after a power transfer. Yet, China’s economic supports would alleviate the shock of external factors on the nation. North Korea, by following the path of Sino-dependence muddling through, looks like to overcome the dilemma created by the complexity of relationship between a regime survival and an economic reform and openness. However, it stands to reason that the contingency of drastic changes always remains there.’

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사회주의 체제전환과 북한 급변사태 - 이론, 변수, 사례의 도출 및 대비를 중심으로이종철아태지역연구센터 · 중소연구2010 · 제34권 제2호소련 및 동구 사회주의 체제전환과 북한 급변사태의 비교 고찰 : 정권 붕괴 유형 및 시나리오를 중심으로이종철신아시아연구소 · 신아세아2010 · 제17권 제3호북한체제의 특성에 대한 변화의 징후와 북한체제의 미래전망윤황국가안보전략연구원 · 국가안보와 전략2009 · 제9권 제2호북한 붕괴론 논쟁 탐구정지웅통일평화연구원 · 통일과 평화2017 · 제9권 제1호북한체제변화 연구방법론에 대한 비판적 고찰과 대안의 모색김용호, 류경아북한연구학회 · 북한연구학회보2012 · 제16권 제1호북한 경제개혁의 정치적 조건과 영향: 화폐개혁 조치를 중심으로이기동통일연구원 · 통일정책연구2010 · 제19권 제1호

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