중동국가의 경제성장과 석유소비 및 석유수출 간의 관계에 대한 실증분석
Empirical Study on the Relationship Among Economic Growth, Oil Consumption, and Oil Exports in the Middle East Countries
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초록
본 연구에서는 아랍에미리트연합, 바레인, 오만, 사우디아라비아, 쿠웨이트, 이란, 이라크 등 7개의중동국가의 경제성장과 석유소비 및 석유수출에 대해서 장기균형 유무를 검정하고 인과관계를 분석하였다. 분석결과에 따라 중동국가들의 경제성장은 석유소비와 장기균형이 성립하는 국가, 석유수출과 장기균형이 성립하는국가, 석유소비와 석유수출과 장기균형을 성립하지 못하는 3개의 그룹으로 분류되었다. 경제성장과 석유소비간에 장기균형이 성립하는 국가는 아랍에미리트연합, 바레인, 오만이었으며, 경제성장과 석유소비 간에 장기균형이 성립하는 국가는 사우디아라비아, 이란, 이라크였다. 쿠웨이트의 경제성장은 석유소비와 석유수출 둘 다장기균형이 성립하지 않았다. 본 연구는 향후 에너지를 수출하는 국가들이 어떤 방식으로 경제성장을 하고 있는지에 대한 기초연구로 활용될 수 있다.
Abstract
This study analyzed long-run equilibrium and causal relationship among economic growth, oil consumption, and oil exports in seven middle-east countries including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, and Iraq. Empirical results suggest existence of three groups among seven countries. The first group, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman, show that their economic growth was in equilibrium with oil consumption while the second group, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq, show that their economic growth was in equilibrium with oil export, and the third group, Kuwait, shows that their economic growth was not in equilibrium with either oil consumption or oil exports. This study can give insights to further energy studies about middle-east countries.
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