석유자급도 분류에 따른 유가상승과 경제성장의 관계 국제비교연구
The Study of the Relationship between Oil Price Shock and Economic Growth Comparing the Country Groups by Different Oil Self-producing Degree
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초록
많은 선행연구들은 유가상승이 경제성장에 대해 음의 관계를 보인다는 이론적, 실증적 분석결과들을 제시하였는데, 대부분 특정 국가만을 대상으로 하거나 개별산업에 미치는 효과 등을 중심으로 연구되었다. 본 연구는 유가상승이 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관해 OECD 21개국을 대상으로 하여 일반적으로 유가상승과 경제성장이 음의 관계를 보이는지 실증적으로 분석하였다. 또한 실증분석 대상국가를 석유자급도 특성으로 구분하여 국가그룹별 경제성장에 대한 유가상승의 영향을 추정하여 서로 비교하였다. 특히 이 국가그룹별 실증분석을 통해서는 석유자급도가 낮은 국가들에게 유가상승으로부터 경제성장이 받게 되는 음의 효과를 정책대안을 통해 완화할 수 있음을 보여 정책적 시사점을 준다.
Abstract
Many studies presented the negative relationship in the view of individual country or industries level in particular country. This paper attempts to investigate the next three. The first is the relationship between oil price shock and economic growth across 21 OECD countries. The second is the difference of that relationship for lower oil self-producing countries relative to higher countries. The third is that difference for lower oil self-producing countries relative to countermeasure countries. The empirical results show that the relationship between them is commonly negative and that lower oil self-producing countries are more weaker than higher and countermeasure countries. Some empirical evidence has an important implication for lower self-producing countries.
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